The fact is that the estimates for Brazil’s 2022 crop are wide open. There are still doubts as to whether the low market availability is just because of a lower-than-expected crop or a consequence of the delay in processing and the growers’ withdrawal. The initial basis of comparison was the last high-load crop in 2020, when, by the way, Brazil reaped a record production. The drought in April and May and the frost in July 2021 had already taken away the productive potential of Brazil’s 2022 crop. In this sense, what is now under discussion is a failure above expectations. It is worth noting that this is not a closed idea, but just a preliminary impression because of the news coming from the field:
- Cerrado: It is the region that most worries us. In areas where there was frost or very intense cold, crops are producing much less coffee than initially expected. SAFRAS projected losses of 23% before the harvest compared to the crop reaped in 2020, but there are signs that the decline in production could be much greater, by 38% to 45%;
- Southern Minas Gerais: The initial idea was a loss of productive potential of 30% from what was reaped in 2020. But these comparative losses can rise to 36% in view of the worsening production reported by growers;
- Matas de Minas: The inverted cycle served as a counterpoint and helped to alleviate the potential losses of the 2022 crop due to the lack of rain, initially projected by SAFRAS at 15% compared to 2020. But the low physical availability flashes the warning signal and it can increase the comparative loss to 20%, according to the initial impression of growers;
- Mogiana: After the initial frustration with production, the improvement in the results of the crops in this final stretch of the harvest brought relief and helped to balance the projections. The end of the harvest in the region is marked by a greater presence of large growers and crops with higher productivity. In this sense, it follows the initial idea of a potential loss of 27% in comparison to 2020, with a chance of this number being adjusted to 30%;
- Arabica: In general terms, the Brazilian arabica crop has the potential to be corrected down by 3.0 to 4.0 million bags from the estimate at the early harvest;
- Conillon: Brazilian conillon production is moving the other way round, given the positive surprise of crops. And with that, the output may stay between 1.0 and 1.5 million bags higher than expected, according to preliminary signs from growers.