Exports remain accelerated
The high dollar makes Brazilian coffee cheaper in the foreign market, justifying its export performance. Brazil shipped 3.06 million bags, according to Secex, and 3.35 million bags, according to Cecafé, last April. Data from Cecafé show that shipments of robusta in April grew 30% compared to last year. Soluble coffee shipments rose by 12% in the same comparison. The surge in the dollar left conillon cheap and solubles extremely competitive in the foreign market. As a result, Brazil gains external market share.
In the period between July 2019 and April 2020, Brazilian shipments reached 32.72 million bags (Cecafé indicates 33.6 million bags). Although the volume fell 7% from the same period of the previous season, it is still very significant, which may even force a revision downward in stocks.
The warehouses of cooperatives are emptying. Many of the shipments for the 2020/21 season, which officially begins in July, may be brought forward to the 2019/20 season, which mitigates the feeling of shortage in this transition between the seasons. In any case, carryover stocks must be lower than expected, which may alleviate the bearish seasonal effect.
