El balance de oferta y demanda de la campaña 2026/27 de Brasil indica la continuidad del crecimiento de la demanda, evalúa el analista de Safras & Mercado, Rafael Silveira. Según el especialista, el escenario sigue siendo favorable tanto en el mercado externo, con exportaciones sólidas, como en el interno, impulsado por el aumento del procesamiento de soja y por el mayor uso de aceite de soja en la producción de biodiésel.
La producción se estima en 180,089 millones de toneladas, respaldada por un crecimiento de aproximadamente 1,2% en el área sembrada. Sumados los 9,7 millones de toneladas de existencias iniciales y unas importaciones cercanas a 900.000 toneladas, la oferta total debería alcanzar aproximadamente 190,7 millones de toneladas, manteniendo una amplia disponibilidad de soja en el mercado brasileño.
«Esperamos la continuidad del crecimiento de la demanda, tanto en el mercado externo, con exportaciones aún sólidas, como en el mercado interno, impulsado por el avance del procesamiento de la oleaginosa y por una mayor utilización del aceite de soja en la producción de biodiésel», afirmó Silveira.
En el mercado de harina de soja, la producción debería alcanzar aproximadamente 50,1 millones de toneladas. Sumadas las existencias iniciales de 8,841 millones de toneladas, la oferta será suficiente para atender el crecimiento de la demanda interna y de las exportaciones, permitiendo existencias finales cercanas a 10,9 millones de toneladas.
Para el aceite de soja, la producción se estima en 12,38 millones de toneladas, a las que se agregan 324.000 toneladas de existencias iniciales. El consumo interno seguirá creciendo, impulsado por la industria del biodiésel, cuya demanda podría alcanzar aproximadamente 7 millones de toneladas. Las exportaciones se proyectan en 1,4 millones de toneladas, mientras que las existencias finales deberían ubicarse cerca de 407.000 toneladas, reflejando un mercado equilibrado pese al crecimiento del consumo interno.
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