Los márgenes brutos para la campaña de trigo 2026/27 muestran un deterioro significativo reflejando el impacto combinado de menores precios y una estructura de costos que continúa siendo exigente.
Según un análisis de Safras & Mercado con los valores actuales de los mercados de futuros, el margen se ubica en torno a los 121 USD/ha, considerando un precio diciembre de 213 USD/tn y un rendimiento de 45 qq/ha.
«Este nivel de margen puede ser replicado bajo distintas combinaciones productivas. Sin embargo, para alcanzar los niveles observados en el informe previo (~178 USD/ha), se requieren escenarios más exigentes, como 45 qq/ha con precios cercanos a 230 USD/tn, o bien rendimientos de 50 qq/ha con precios en torno a 210 USD/tn, lo que vuelve a poner en evidencia la elevada sensibilidad del resultado económico. En cuanto a los niveles de indiferencia, el rendimiento se ubica actualmente cercano a los 40 qq/ha, aunque con resultados económicos muy ajustados», explica el analista Andrés Cannizzo.
Agregan que los resultados indican que, por debajo de 40 qq/ha, los márgenes pasan a ser negativos,
comprometiendo fuertemente la rentabilidad del cultivo. Recién con rindes superiores a 45 qq/ha se logran resultados económicos positivos.
En este contexto, los costos incrementales continúan siendo el principal condicionante de la campaña.
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