With huge soybean crop ahead, Brazil must have record exports in 2023


     Porto Alegre, July 26, 2022 – Brazilian soybean exports are expected to total 91.5 mln tons in 2023, up from the 77.2 mln indicated for 2022. The forecast is part of the update of the Brazilian supply and demand framework, released by SAFRAS & Mercado last Friday (22), and indicates a 19% increase between the seasons.

     The recovery of Brazilian production, with a new record production potential, must also lead to a new export record. Brazil must recover the portion lost to the US due to the 2021/22 production failure.

     Good industrial margins, strong Brazilian participation in the international market, and possible greater demand for biodiesel must also result in a growing crush. With a probable huge crop, ending stocks must have strong growth, even with the increase in consumption.

     SAFRAS indicates a crush of 49.5 mln tons in 2023 and 47.9 mln tons in 2022, with an increase of 3% between one season and another. SAFRAS indicates imports of 100 thousand tons for 2023, down 86% from 2022.

     As for the 2023 season, the total supply of soybeans is expected to increase by 18%, reaching 154.53 mln tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 144.6 mln tons, growing 13% over the previous year. Thus, ending stocks should increase by 239%, from 2.93 mln to 9.92 mln tons.

     SAFRAS expects soymeal production to hit 38.05 mln tons in 2023, up 3%. Exports are likely to increase 3% to 18.7 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 19.2 mln, up 5%. Stocks are expected to rise 7% to 2.4 mln tons.

     Soyoil production must increase by 3% to 10.05 mln tons, with Brazil exporting 1.9 mln tons, down 10%. Domestic consumption is rising 3% to 8.15 mln tons. Use for biodiesel is expected to increase by 10% to 4.5 mln tons. Stocks would rise by 6% to 333,000 tons.

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