Porto Alegre, July 21, 2021 – The July report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released on the 12th, surprised by not bringing any change to the US supply and demand scenario for the 2021/22 season. The market expected reductions in production and ending stocks for the new season, given the current situation of US plantations.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must hit 4.405 bln bushels in 2021/22, equivalent to 119.88 mln tons. The market was expecting 4.374 bln or 119 mln tons. There was no change in comparison with the June survey.
Ending stocks are estimated at 155 mln bushels or 4.22 mln tons. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 140 mln or 3.81 mln tons. The forecast did not change from the June report either.
USDA indicated the crush at 2.225 bln bushels (60.55 mln tons) and exports at 2.075 bln (56.47 mln tons), unchanged from the previous estimate.
For the 2020/21 season, USDA kept carryover stocks at 135 mln bushels or 3.67 mln tons, in line with market expectations.
Regarding the global picture, USDA projected the world’s 2021/22 soybean output at 385.22 mln tons. Final stocks are estimated at 94.49 mln tons. The market was expecting ending stocks of 92.3 mln tons. In June, USDA indicated the production of 385.52 mln and stocks of 92.55 mln tons.
USDA projects the US crop at 119.88 mln tons, as already mentioned. For Brazil, the forecast is for the production of 144 mln tons. Argentina’s crop is estimated at 52 mln tons. Chinese imports are expected to reach 102 mln tons, against 103 mln in the previous report.
For the 2020/21 season, the estimate for the world crop was 363.57 mln tons. Carryover stocks are projected at 91.49 mln tons. The market was betting on stocks of 87.6 mln tons.
The Brazilian production was maintained at 137 mln, as expected by the market. The Argentine crop was reduced from 47 to 46.5 mln tons. The market was betting on 46.4 mln tons. The forecast for Chinese imports was reduced from 100 to 98 mln tons.
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