USDA January report brings numbers within expectations to soybean

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     Porto Alegre, January 17, 2021 – The January report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released last Wednesday (12), brought numbers in line with market estimates, which resulted in a neutral report for Chicago.

     USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must reach 4.435 bln bushels in 2021/22, equivalent to 120.7 mln tons. In December, the estimate was 4.425 bln bushels or 120.43 mln tons. The number was within the expectations of the market. Yield increased from 51.2 to 51.4 bushels per acre.

     Ending stocks are projected at 350 mln bushels or 9.53 mln tons. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 349 mln bushels or 9.45 mln tons. In the previous report, the forecast was 340 mln bushels or 9.25 mln tons.

     The crush was estimated at 2.190 bln bushels and exports at 2.050 bln, repeating the previous month’s estimates.

     Regarding the global picture, USDA projected the world soybean crop in 2021/22 at 372.56 mln tons, against 281.78 mln in December. Ending stocks are estimated at 95.2 mln tons. The market was expecting ending stocks at 99.3 mln tons. In December, the USDA had indicated stocks at 102 mln tons.

     USDA projects the US crop with 120.71 mln tons, above the December estimate of 120.43 mln, as mentioned. For Brazil, the forecast was cut from 144 to 139 mln tons. Argentina’s crop is estimated at 46.5 mln tons, down 3 mln from the previous report. Chinese imports were kept at 100 mln tons.

     With regard to quarterly stocks, in a just-released parallel report, USDA indicated that quarterly US soybean stocks, on December 1st, totaled 3.15 bln bushels. Stored volume rose 7% from the same period in 2020.

     The figure was above the market expectations of 3.11 bln bushels. Out of the total, 1.52 bln bushels are stored with producers, up 16%. Off-farm stocks amount to 1.63 bln bushels, down 1%.

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