Porto Alegre, May 31, 2021 – The last update on Brazil’s agribusiness GPV for sugarcane estimated for 2021, with values calculated for the month of April, point to a value of BRL 79.14 billion, already 1.34% higher than the value of BRL 78.09 billion seen in 2020. This level of increase is slightly below the level of advantage observed in the previous month when projections indicated an annual gain of 2.51% over 2020. This reduction in the level of annual advantage of cane occurred even with the advance of the 2021 cane GPV, which went from BRL 78 to 79 billion.
Unlike the reductions in the levels of advantage in the annual comparison, in the margin the scenario continues to move forward, albeit with much lower intensity. Between March and April, the cane GPV rose 1.07%, with an increase of BRL 835 million. In the previous month, the advance observed up to then was BRL 3.05 billion in the margin, with gains of 4.06%. It is interesting to note that, at the same time, the total GPV of grain crops increased 1.85%, or BRL 13.49 billion. Likewise, total agribusiness GPV, including the meat industry, advanced 1.80% in the margin, or BRL 19.00 billion.
These advances remain largely linked to the progress of the grain crop in Brazil, which has set records. The advent of the most severe drought for the last 20 years hitting the Center-South and Midwest is not yet reflected in the GPV data, as the numbers are relative to April. In fact, in a recent commentary published on May 12, an increase of 6% was pointed to the volume of soybean production, reaching 144 million. Even so, pro-duction losses in the cane and corn crops tend to be seen in the coming few months, which tends to negatively impact the total agribusiness GPV.
For 2021 the projection for the total agribusiness GPV is BRL 1.076 trillion, up 12.10% from the previous year’s GPV of BRL 960.18 billion. In turn, the total GPV of grain crops is projected at BRL 741.20 billion, indicating an increase of 15.96% YoY. Soybeans have their GPV forecast at BRL 353.27 billion, indicating an increase of 31.34% YoY from BRL 268.97 billion in 2020; currently, that accounts for 47.66% of the total GPV of grain crops. The cane GPV for 2021 currently stands at BRL 79.14 billion, accounting for 10.68% of the total agribusiness GPV. Corn, with its GPV at BRL 134.66 billion, must grow by 22.67% YoY and account for 18.17% of the GPV of grain crops. Coffee, with a GPV of BRL 29.90 billion, must represent 4.03% of the total GPV of grain crops, as well as decline by 22.73% YoY.
SAFRAS Latam