Porto Alegre, April 7th, 2026 – The week was marked by more contained movements in the soybean market, with prices showing a sideways pattern even after the planting intentions report released in March, which indicated an increase in soybean area and a reduction in corn area. Overall, the data came close to market expectations for soybeans, although slightly below. Expectations were around 85.5 million acres, while the report indicated approximately 84.7 million. Even so, if this area is confirmed, US production potential remains high.
When analyzing this scenario objectively, some relevant hypotheses emerge. Considering the indicated area of 84.7 million acres, about 34.27 million hectares, and applying a yield of 3,550 kg per hectare, or approximately 52.8 bushels per acre, a high level, we would have a potential crop of around 120.5 million tons. In this context, in the absence of weather problems, the US could register regular production with high ending stocks in the 2025/26 season. Total supply could reach around 130.7 million tons in 2026/27, assuming a regular level of imports.
On the other hand, the demand side deserves attention. Expectations of increased mandatory biofuel blending in the US could significantly boost domestic crushing. If this demand materializes, domestic consumption could reach close to 74 million tons, combined with exports around 51 million tons, especially if China resumes significant purchases during the US harvest period in October and November.
In this more aggressive demand scenario, US ending stocks could be tightened, potentially requiring imports, including Brazilian soybeans. This dynamic would add upward pressure on Chicago prices, potentially pushing new crop contracts into the US$ 12.80 to US$ 13.00 per bushel range if such demand levels are confirmed.
Naturally, the final planted area will still be confirmed in the May reports. In addition, there is no guarantee that China will adopt a buying posture sufficient to absorb this volume of US soybeans. However, if agreements are fulfilled and even without crop losses, upward pressure on futures prices could be significant.
For Brazil, in this scenario, the tendency would be for a sharp decline in port premiums during the second half of the year, given the high product availability and a more competitive flat price compared to US soybeans.
Another point of attention lies in soybean meal contracts. The current situation does not appear aligned with market fundamentals. The crush spread is very high, at times reaching around US$ 2.80 per bushel positive, an extremely high margin.
This level does not match the potential supply of meal that could emerge if US domestic demand materializes, nor current meal prices on the exchange, which under this perspective should be closer to the US$ 260 to US$ 280 per short ton range.
Given this, the soybean meal market raises a warning signal and should be closely monitored in the coming months.
