The first ideas about Brazil’s 2022 crop begin to appear. The focus is arabica, whose productive potential was weakened by the drought in April and May and then by the frost in July. The estimate by trading companies for arabica production in 2022 is around 40 million bags. If compared to 2021, production should grow nearly 15%. However, it is worth noting that Brazil’s 2021 crop has a low load and also faced problems in its development due to adverse weather. In short, there was a sharply lower production load.
The best reference is another cycle with a high production load. In this case, the 50 million bags of arabica reaped in 2020. And then the loss of productive potential is around 20% or around 10 million bags (between 8 and 12 million bags). But growers consider this view of exporters, based only on the appearance of the blossoming, too optimistic, given blossoming problems that suggest losses higher than those indicated by trading companies. Something like 30% to 35%, in some cases up to 40% of potential production.
The conillon crop has shown good development and should increase again in 2022. The initial idea is that it will reach between 20 and 25 million bags. From these preliminary ideas, the total production of Brazil’s 2022 crop would range from 60 to 65 million bags. A productive scenario far less pessimistic than we had a few months ago. And, of course, this raises barriers to bullish moves in the international market.