The increase in production in Brazil’s 2022 crop, besides being insufficient to bring tranquility to supply, is also more turned to the conillon side, which should keep the physical supply, especially of arabica, very tight. Low carryover stocks at the end of the 21/22 season also end up weighing against supply in 22/23, which, therefore, should grow by only 2% (stocks + production). And the small advance in supply ends up limiting the scenarios for growth in demand.
The initial idea is a modest 3% advance in export volume, projected at 35 million bags for the 22/23 season. The lower availability ends up compromising the exportable balance, justifying the poor performance. Domestic consumption should grow by only 1%, projected at 21.60 million bags. The weak signals of the Brazilian GDP in 2022 guide this scenario of weak growth in coffee consumption.
Even with weak demand, stocks should not grow much and be around 2.78 million bags at the end of the 22/23 cycle, which corresponds to an increase of only 8%. However, it is below all other seasons. The stock-to-consumption ratio rises from 12% to 13%, which should not allow slack to the local industry.
