Chinese data on pig herd diverges from USDA figures


Porto Alegre, 30 de julho de 2021 – The process of recovery of the pig herd in China has recently gained new chapters. In the first half of July, USDA released its global report on the meat sector, positioning the market for the recovery process of Chinese pig farming after the serious outbreak of African swine fever between 2018 and 2019. The Department was conservative in its analysis, pointing to a slower herd recovering process when compared to the numbers indicated by the Chinese government. The main points of the USDA report will be described below.

– The first aspect to be considered is that USDA did not release projections for 2022. In other words, the number of matrices in China remains unknown. Projections for 2022 were left for the October 12 report.

– As for the April report, USDA increased the demand figure, above the production increase. Thus, China must import a high volume of imports in the remainder of the year;

– For Chinese pork production, USDA now estimates 43.75 million tons, up 20.39% from 36.34 million tons in 2020;

– For pork imports from China, USDA indicated 5 million tons (up from 4.85 million tons indicated in April);

– The initial herd of swine matrices in 2021 in China was maintained at 38.5 million head. The forecast for early 2022 is expected to be released in October;

– The final herd for 2021 was estimated at 410 million head, below the 420 million indicated in April, showing that the recovery process will continue in progress next year. At the end of 2017, the period before the African swine fever, the herd was at 441.59 million head;

– For slaughter, the forecast for 2021 was 550 million head, up from 520 million head indicated in the April report.

In contrast, the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) reported that its PIG herd reached 439.11 million head at the end of June, while that of matrices reached 45.64 million head. As for the herd of matrices, it is 1.54% higher than that registered at the end of 2017 (44.95 million head), the period before the emergence of ASF.