The domestic market reflects NY, the dollar and the distinct postures between buyers and sellers. While producers focus on the short term and on the commercialization of available coffee, buyers are directing their attention to the lower prices of the new crop.
Good cup arabica in South Minas lost the R$ 2,000 per bag level and is trading around R$ 1,920 at the beginning of April. After gains in March, when it traded at an average of R$ 1,946 per bag, the beverage type fell again at the start of April and is testing the R$ 1,900 line, pressured by the proximity of the harvest and stronger selling interest.
In the price curve comparison, coffee maintains a relevant negative distance relative to 2025, but still remains well above the five-year deflated average, R$ 1,405 per bag, and the levels seen in 2024, R$ 1,290 per bag, when the recent rally began. Restricted short-term supply continues to support quotations and, even in the face of recent losses, the scenario remains relatively favorable to the producer.
But if a larger crop in Brazil is confirmed, there is a risk that prices may retreat to levels below those recorded at the start of the previous harvest, when in July the average was close to R$ 1,805 per bag.
New crop transactions, with delivery and payment in September 2026, are about R$ 310 per bag below the available market, reflecting the expected impact of incoming new supply. This difference is explained by two main factors:
• Lower NY futures: the September contract is around 14 cents/lb below May, which is equivalent to approximately US$ 18.52 per bag or about R$ 99 per bag, considering a dollar at R$ 5.33, September forward curve.
• Weaker differentials: Good Cup Mrgb coffee is traded in the spot market at around +8 cents against NY, while the same description in the new crop, shipment Jul/Dec, is indicated at -21 cents against NY, a difference of 29 cents/lb, equivalent to US$ 38 per bag or approximately R$ 203 per bag.
Altogether, this difference in spot versus new crop price formation stands at around R$ 302 per bag, in line with trading house indications. Buyers remain on the defensive, as they are still betting on a scenario of weaker NY and weaker differentials with the advance of seasonal pressure from the entry of the new Brazilian crop.
Greater selling presence pressuring conilon in Brazil, which is already trading below the historical average
In Espírito Santo, conilon type 7/8 is quoted around R$ 920 per 60-kg bag at the beginning of April, following losses in London, the weaker dollar and lower FOB export differentials. The May/26 contract is quoted below US$ 3,500 per ton, pressured by advancing supply, with the arrival of new coffee in Brazil and Indonesia and good external flow from Vietnam.
The large volume of available coffee in Brazil, especially in Espírito Santo, combined with the proximity of the harvest, has caused a change in the stance of conilon and robusta sellers, who are now acting more aggressively and pressuring quotations.
Thus, the price curve of Espírito Santo conilon continues its downward movement, falling again at the beginning of April. In this process, in addition to widening the negative distance relative to 2025, prices are already trading below the level seen in the same period of 2024, R$ 1,158 per bag, as well as below the average between 2021 and 2025, R$ 966 per bag, both adjusted by the IGP-M. This indicates that the purchasing power of a conilon bag has already returned to levels similar to the average of the last five years.
The advance of the crop tends to bring additional seasonal pressure to the market. The average indication for July is around R$ 866 per bag, with the potential for the market to work below this level. Competition with arabica, in addition to competition with Indonesia and Vietnam in the international market, tends to continue weighing on prices in a scenario of more abundant supply, in which domestic consumption is unable to fully absorb production.
Points of attention as the harvest arrives
Harvesting in Brazil may be delayed by two to three weeks compared to last year in some regions, but still within the window considered normal, as in 2025 work started earlier. As supply advances, the market tends to converge, reducing the gap between the inflated prices seen in the 2025 inter-harvest period and the levels projected for the 2026 crop.
Financial volatility and the dollar should continue to bring fluctuations, but the approach of the crop is likely to prevail in the fundamental direction of the market. Harvest progress and partial crop results should dictate the pace of coffee prices in this transition period between harvests. Rainfall, especially during May, also deserves attention and may enter agents’ radar.
In any case, from the producer’s point of view, the moment continues to require strategic attention, especially regarding cash needs at harvest entry. The fact is that the gains recorded in March opened important commercialization windows to oxygenate cash flow. Those who took advantage of them are in a more comfortable position to manage the pace of sales at harvest entry.
