The pace of soybean sales for the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crops in Brazil advanced more slowly in July and the first days of August. With more withdrawn sellers in the face of strong variations registered in Chicago and the exchange rate, there was less trading interest in the period. It is important to point out that the futures contracts in Chicago spent most of the month accumulating lows and only rebounded last week. With regard to the new crop, growers remain reticent to move forward in locking costs, which has historically been a risky strategy.
According to a survey carried out by SAFRAS & Mercado, with data collected through August 5, 79.9% of Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop were sold, up 5.6% from the previous month (74.3%). The current percentage is equivalent to approximately 100.534 million tons traded, from the estimated output of 125.880 million tons. In the same period of the previous year, the index was 81.9%, while the five-year average for the period is 82.6%.
For the new Brazilian soybean crop (2022/23), the percentage sold reaches 17.3% of the production estimated by the SAFRAS & Mercado planting intention survey, with an increase of 1.6% over the previous month (15.7%). The current percentage is equivalent to nearly 26.271 million tons, out of a potential crop initially estimated at 151.497 million tons. In the same period of the previous year, the index was 23%, while the five-year average for the period is 21.5%.