Porto Alegre, October 28, 2026 – Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) showed signs of recovery in the final two trading sessions of the week, despite accumulating modest losses over the period. Strong U.S. export sales, particularly to China, helped improve market sentiment after weeks of selling pressure.
The recent recovery suggests the possible formation of a price bottom, although futures remain slightly below the intersection of medium- and long-term moving averages. This movement does not yet confirm a trend reversal, but a recovery above these levels could support more significant gains. Meanwhile, volatility is expected to remain elevated as the market seeks a clearer direction.
U.S. soybean export sales provided important support during the week. After two consecutive weeks of weaker sales, near 600 thousand metric tons, the latest report showed approximately 2.8 million metric tons, a significant increase that reinforced expectations of stronger demand.
With the U.S. crop largely priced into the market, attention is gradually shifting toward other fundamentals, including export demand and weather conditions in South America. Although further USDA production revisions remain possible, the scope for substantial adjustments appears more limited.
In Brazil, planting of the new soybean crop continues advancing at a consistent pace, supported by favorable initial conditions. However, it is still too early to assess crop conditions in the Northeast with greater confidence or determine whether full production potential will be achieved.
November will be an important month for crop development, particularly as weather models continue alternating between forecasts of below-average rainfall and high temperatures in Central Brazil and Paraguay, especially for December.
These uncertainties keep weather among the main risk factors for soybean prices and raise the possibility that Chicago may be approaching, or may already have established, a price bottom. However, this scenario will depend on the evolution of weather conditions and confirmation of changes in market fundamentals.
The U.S. supply and demand balance also remains under pressure. Export performance is stronger than that observed in the 2024/25 season, when U.S. shipments reached approximately 51 million metric tons. This reinforces the possibility of upward revisions to export projections and downward adjustments to ending stocks.
Meanwhile, there have been no significant changes in U.S. biodiesel policies suggesting a reduction in domestic soybean oil demand. Soybean oil exports, however, remain severely depressed. USDA projections indicate total shipments of only 181 thousand metric tons during the season, a substantial decline compared with the previous two crop years.
In the latest reporting week, soybean oil export sales totaled just 0.9 thousand metric tons, reflecting extremely limited international demand.
Soybean meal, which had previously posted strong gains, recently accounted for most of the losses in the soybean complex. The movement followed a significant adjustment by speculative funds that had accumulated record long positions.
The decline in soybean meal also contributed to pressure on soybean futures, reflecting adjustments in crushing margins, which remain elevated in the United States. This reinforces the importance of monitoring soybean byproducts and their influence on price formation.
In Brazil, physical market activity showed some recovery between Thursday and Friday, following the rebound in Chicago. Trading was driven mainly by processors seeking to secure supplies through the end of November.
Export demand remained weaker, reflecting the seasonal slowdown in buying interest as trading companies approach the completion of their shipment programs. With Brazilian soybean shipments already exceeding 110 million metric tons in the annual export program, buying indications are increasingly concentrated on the new crop, with shipments beginning in February.
In this environment, Brazil’s production performance will be particularly important. Should supply problems emerge, part of international demand could shift toward the United States, further tightening the U.S. balance sheet and potentially supporting higher prices in Chicago.
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