Soybean market has volatile week, but remains sideways in Chicago

Porto Alegre, October 5, 2026 – Soybeans had another week of sideways trading on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), with no clear directional movement established in the short term. Volatility remained high throughout the week, with some sessions testing lower levels before prices regained strength and ended the period with slight gains.

Meanwhile, short-term moving averages are getting increasingly close to a crossover. However, soybeans appear to be finding strong support around US$ 13.00 per bushel in the November contract. Part of the current movement is also supported by soybean meal, which remains at quite elevated levels, although it is also overbought.

At Brazilian ports, liquidity remains minimal and commercialization has slowed considerably. Premiums have also declined, bringing the Brazilian flat price closer to FOB Gulf levels. U.S. premiums have recently weakened as well amid what had been a faster pace of new-crop harvesting.

The market is now looking for new factors, with attention focused on the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and the possibility of a relevant development or, conversely, the maintenance of the current trade profile.

China has already purchased more than 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, but shipments remain slow due to still-limited product availability. With 12% of the area harvested, according to data released at the beginning of the week, no more than 15 million to 18 million metric tons would have actually been harvested, and possibly an even smaller share would be dry, standardized and ready for export.

Given the strong purchase commitments, not only from China but also from other players, there cannot be significant delays in shipments. Should this occur, additional pressure on Brazilian premiums could emerge.

Current weather conditions have not been negative for harvesting, but forecasts for steady rainfall over the next two weeks could affect harvest and crush flows, representing an important point of attention for the soybean market.