Porto Alegre, August 20th 2026 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a surprising report for grains in its monthly WASDE, increasing acreage for both soybeans and corn. The increase in soybean area was approximately 1.4 million acres, while harvested area is now also expected to increase by a similar amount, equivalent to approximately 550/560 thousand hectares after conversion. This places the U.S. soybean crop at a new production level, with supply approaching 123 million tonnes, which would be a record.
A record crop is now expected in the United States, something that the harvest itself will begin to indicate more clearly from September/October onward, while supply should be consolidated in November. However, the Department also adjusted yield, as expected given the weather conditions throughout July. USDA lowered yield from 53 to 52.7 bushels per acre, equivalent to approximately 3,542 kg/ha. Further downward revisions are still possible, meaning that yield will not necessarily remain at its current level.
In addition, acreage increased sharply, but final crop figures will only be consolidated in January 2027, meaning there is still considerable room for further revisions to the U.S. balance sheet. A larger soybean area makes sense from the U.S. producer’s perspective, given extremely strong domestic demand, particularly for soybean oil. Soybean oil exports have fallen by around 65%/67% this season due to the greater concentration of production in the domestic market. At the same time, U.S. soybean meal exports have reached record levels.
The CBOT could still face some downward pressure, particularly if this record production scenario is confirmed. However, this does not negate the expected demand, which should also undergo further adjustments by USDA in the U.S. balance sheet. There was no significant adjustment, for example, to U.S. exports for either the current crop (old crop) or the new crop. At the same time, for the old crop alone, cumulative net sales are already more than 420 thousand tonnes above the current projection. USDA will have to adjust this figure for the old crop or, more likely, given that shipments remain below this volume, shift part of this demand to the new-crop balance sheet.
There was also an adjustment to new-crop crush, with an increase of approximately 816 thousand tonnes. This is a significant adjustment, but further demand-side pressure may still emerge, particularly from exports.
China remained a major highlight in soybean purchases for another week, including purchases of old-crop soybeans totaling approximately one cargo, or around 65.9 thousand tonnes. Meanwhile, new-crop sales stand at around 4.557 million tonnes, approaching 5 million tonnes when adding sales reported during the week that have not yet been fully reflected in the weekly reports.
Therefore, despite the significant increase in acreage and the possibility of a record crop in the United States, the U.S. balance sheet remains subject to important revisions, particularly on the demand side. Greater supply could pressure the CBOT, but strong domestic crushing and continued Chinese purchases remain important factors limiting stronger bearish pressure.
