Porto Alegre, August 20th 2026 – Activity at Brazilian ports remains strong, with firm demand from both China, the main buye of soy, and other importers, which are also maintaining a strong pace of cargo demand. Line-ups show more than 9.6 million tonnes already scheduled early in August. In other words, expectations that Brazil’s exports would decline as China returned to the U.S. market have not materialized, requiring significant adjustments to Brazilian soybean export and ending stock projections.
In fact, the entire soybean complex has been generating strong volumes at ports. Soybeans and soybean meal are also posting robust exports, despite record U.S. supply in the international market and firm volumes from Argentina. In addition, Brazilian soybean oil continues to post high volumes at ports, although under a somewhat different dynamic, more closely related to the excess-supply environment and sharply negative premiums affecting the flat price.
The revisions were essentially demand-driven, with crushing potentially reaching 63 million tonnes and exports now estimated at 112.5 million tonnes. The impact is naturally reflected in carryover stocks, which were reduced to 4.88 million tonnes, a significant adjustment, particularly considering that this was the year of Brazil’s largest-ever supply.
This also leaves the new-crop outlook with figures that are approaching a threshold. Under an excellent scenario, with full production close to 180 million tonnes, carryover stocks would be around 8.7 million tonnes – but this represents the best possible scenario.
Should weather problems arise, particularly under the El Niño scenario, supply could become tighter, putting even greater pressure on ending stocks and providing strong support to premiums at Brazilian ports. This could push the entire soybean complex to higher price levels, with soybeans appreciating while meal and oil would also tend to rise, or otherwise exert significant pressure on crushing margins. The tendency, however, is for the value of soybean products to increase as a consequence of this tighter supply scenario.
