Porto Alegre, march 9th 2026 – The month of February marked an important change in the coffee market, with a clear shift in the price operating range. The May/26 position fell to the lowest level in six months on the New York exchange, moving from 346 cents on January 27 to 280 cents at the close of February.
This represents a devaluation of 66 cents, equivalent to about US$ 97 per bag, or 19% in just over one month. In February alone, accumulated losses were 11%, very significant declines in both comparison windows.
The weakness in prices reflects the sentiment of higher supply in Brazil in 2026, especially arabica, reinforcing the perception of a calmer global supply scenario, with larger exports and higher stocks starting in the next cycle. And it is worth remembering: the new crop has not even arrived yet.
Funds reduce net long exposure and reinforce the bearish move
Funds sharply reduced their net long position, intensifying the bearish bias. In the February 24 session, these agents held 12,814 net long contracts in coffee futures in NY. This is an abrupt change in behavior: at the end of January, they maintained a net long position of 32.7 thousand contracts.
This aggressive liquidation reflects the sentiment of greater comfort in supply and contributed directly to the sharp drop in arabica prices at the New York terminal. It is worth noting that funds had not shown such a low net long position since October 2023, when they were in fact net short, holding a net position of minus 188 contracts.
Market changes direction and converges toward average references, a normalization signal
The price comparison for coffee on the NY exchange reveals an important change in the arabica curve. After the pullback observed at the end of 2025, driven by the end of the import tariff on green coffee in the United States, including the extra 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee, January marked a consolidation period. But in February, the market intensified losses, following the opposite path from 2025, when there was an increase in the same month. Thus, it tilted negatively and converged toward the 5-year historical average (2021-2025).
There is still a relevant distance above the average reference, supported by lower physical availability and reduced stocks after the crop shortfall in Brazil in 2025. Even so, the recent move already indicates a change in behavior, which should be confirmed throughout March.
Favorable weather and the prospect of a larger arabica crop in Brazil tend to keep negative pressure on NY prices. The equilibrium level will depend on the size of the global arabica crop, determined largely by Brazilian production. The current moment is one of optimism, which opens room for further negative realignments.
On the other hand, close attention to weather conditions, harvest progress, and the risk associated with the Brazilian winter is essential, as it can still influence the final crop outcome. With low global stocks, any sign of production risk can generate a fast price reaction.
Fábio Rübenich (fabio@safras.com.br) / Safras News
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