Porto Alegre, September 16th, 2025 – Argentina is expected to record another strong production in 2026, compared to the figures achieved in 2025. The Safras & Mercado team projects a crop of around 51.14 mln tons, compared to 50.56 mln in the current season. The estimate indicates a reduction in cultivated area, but points to a higher average productivity of close to 3,055 kilograms per hectare, equivalent to nearly 50.9 bags. If this projection is confirmed, the country will have a more comfortable supply and demand situation, with expected adjustments in domestic processing, export flows, and final stocks.
The supply of soymeal and soyoil may increase slightly, as well as expected exports. In terms of premiums, Brazilian soymeal is expected to remain negative, a trend that is likely to intensify in 2026 given the expectation of a very high domestic crush. This factor makes Brazilian soybeans competitive against Argentine supply, especially considering the highly pressured price scenario in Chicago.
Furthermore, it is worth noting that increased soyoil production in the United States, driven by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) incentives for biodiesel and renewable fuels, is expected to generate additional volumes of soymeal as a byproduct. Therefore, unless there is a significant crop failure in South America in 2026, the global market is expected to have ample soymeal availability, which will likely keep prices under pressure.
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