{"id":71271,"date":"2026-10-16T11:00:43","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T14:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/?p=71271"},"modified":"2026-10-16T11:00:43","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T14:00:43","slug":"fx-filial-de-fitch-ajusta-a-22-pib-de-2026-y-proyecta-2027-con-mayor-incertidumbre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/fx-filial-de-fitch-ajusta-a-22-pib-de-2026-y-proyecta-2027-con-mayor-incertidumbre\/","title":{"rendered":"FX, filial de Fitch, ajusta a 2,2% PIB de 2026 y proyecta 2027 con mayor incertidumbre"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La <strong>agencia calificadora FIX SCR ajust\u00f3 su proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB)<\/strong> de 2026 para Argentina desde un 2,8% anual para 2,2%, por un menor impulso de los componentes de la absorci\u00f3n respecto a los previsto, al tiempo que las exportaciones netas continuar\u00edan firmes.<\/p>\n<p>Seg\u00fan la agencia, contin\u00faa la lenta recuperaci\u00f3n en indicadores vinculados al consumo privado. En el acumulado a jul-26, los salarios reales formales cayeron -3,0% a\/a, con ca\u00edda en los asalariados formales, continuidad de altos costos de financiamiento para las familias, que decanta en la elevada tasa de morosidad (12,9% cartera irregular +90 d\u00edas en el segmento de familias), y una contracci\u00f3n del IVA real por 11 mes consecutivo.<\/p>\n<p>La inflaci\u00f3n de sept-26 aceler\u00f3 en 0,2 p.p. m\/m, con una leve desaceleraci\u00f3n del componente n\u00facleo a 1,7% m\/m. Para dic-26, FIX mantiene su proyecci\u00f3n en 29,5% a\/a, con una tendencia gradual (no lineal) a la baja<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u00d1O 2027<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>La Calificadora prev\u00e9 un a\u00f1o electoral con mayor incertidumbre reflejada en un aumento de la volatilidad, principalmente en el mercado de cambios. Se prev\u00e9 una dolarizaci\u00f3n de carteras pr\u00f3xima a las elecciones, lo que redundar\u00e1 en una presi\u00f3n sobre el tipo de cambio, las reservas y sobre la tasa de inter\u00e9s para sostener la demanda de dinero.<\/p>\n<p>\u00abBajo este escenario base se supone que el oficialismo es reelecto sin demasiados sobresaltos\u00bb, indic\u00f3 FX.<\/p>\n<p>Se asumi\u00f3 un ruido cambiario con una din\u00e1mica similar a la del 2025, que derivar\u00eda en un alza moderada de la inflaci\u00f3n (bajo pass-through).<\/p>\n<p>El tipo de cambio a dic-27 se proyecta en USD\/$ 2.021 (+26,5% a\/a), asumiendo una mayor tasa mensual de devaluaci\u00f3n en el IIT-2027 por cobertura, al tiempo que la inflaci\u00f3n ser\u00eda de 19,1% a\/a, lo que definir\u00eda una suba del tipo de cambio real. La tasa de inflaci\u00f3n mensual promedio ser\u00eda de 1,4%, con una volatilidad acotada entre el 1,0% y el 2,0%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La agencia calificadora FIX SCR ajust\u00f3 su proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 2026 para Argentina desde un 2,8% anual para 2,2%, por un menor impulso de los componentes de la absorci\u00f3n respecto a los previsto, al tiempo que las exportaciones netas continuar\u00edan firmes. Seg\u00fan la agencia, contin\u00faa la lenta recuperaci\u00f3n en [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":70266,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[334,455,187],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-71271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias-financieras","tag-argentina-es","tag-elecciones","tag-pib"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>FX, filial de Fitch, proyecta 2027 con mayor incertidumbre<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/fx-filial-de-fitch-ajusta-a-22-pib-de-2026-y-proyecta-2027-con-mayor-incertidumbre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FX, filial de Fitch, proyecta 2027 con mayor incertidumbre\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La agencia calificadora FIX SCR ajust\u00f3 su proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 2026 para Argentina desde un 2,8% anual para 2,2%, por un menor impulso de los componentes de la absorci\u00f3n respecto a los previsto, al tiempo que las exportaciones netas continuar\u00edan firmes. 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