{"id":69033,"date":"2026-03-31T12:51:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T15:51:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/?p=69033"},"modified":"2026-03-31T12:51:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T15:51:40","slug":"scotiabank-proyeccion-petroleo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/scotiabank-proyeccion-petroleo\/","title":{"rendered":"Petr\u00f3leo seguir\u00e1 alto hasta el 3T26 seg\u00fan Scotiabank"},"content":{"rendered":"

Un reciente informe de Scotiabank Global<\/b> analiza el panorama de las materias primas y su impacto directo en las principales econom\u00edas del mundo. Seg\u00fan la entidad, el mercado energ\u00e9tico<\/a> seguir\u00e1 operando bajo condiciones de escasez y volatilidad durante la mayor parte de 2026, lo que condicionar\u00e1 el ritmo de recorte de tasas de inter\u00e9s por parte de la Reserva Federal (Fed) y el Banco Central Europeo (BCE).<\/p>\n

Los analistas proyectan que la presi\u00f3n sobre el valor del crudo comenzar\u00e1 a ceder reci\u00e9n hacia finales del tercer trimestre de 2026. Esta estimaci\u00f3n se basa en la expectativa de que las tensiones geopol\u00edticas en Medio Oriente<\/b> inicien un proceso de desescalada gradual a partir de mediados de este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Inflaci\u00f3n en EE.UU.: El petr\u00f3leo como \u00abX\u00bb de la ecuaci\u00f3n<\/h2>\n

Para la econom\u00eda estadounidense, el precio del combustible se consolida como el principal factor de incertidumbre que podr\u00eda descarrilar las metas de la Fed:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    Proyecci\u00f3n 2026:<\/b> Se mantiene una inflaci\u00f3n estimada del 2,9%<\/b>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Perspectiva 2027:<\/b> Se prev\u00e9 una convergencia m\u00e1s lenta hacia el objetivo, situ\u00e1ndose en el 2,6%<\/b>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Riesgos:<\/b> Cualquier interrupci\u00f3n adicional en el suministro energ\u00e9tico podr\u00eda forzar nuevos aumentos en el \u00edndice de precios al consumidor (IPC).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Europa: Ajuste de expectativas a la baja<\/h2>\n

    El escenario para la Eurozona es m\u00e1s complejo, con proyecciones que se han tornado negativas debido a la persistencia de los costos energ\u00e9ticos:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      Inflaci\u00f3n:<\/b> Se estima un cierre del 2,9%<\/b> para este a\u00f1o, reflejando la rigidez de los precios.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    2. \n

      Tasas de Inter\u00e9s:<\/b> Scotiabank proyecta que la tasa de referencia se ubique en el 2,65%<\/b> durante 2026.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    3. \n

      Hacia 2027:<\/b> Solo se espera un alivio significativo el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o, con una inflaci\u00f3n retrocediendo al 2,40%<\/b>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \n

      An\u00e1lisis de Mercado<\/h3>\n

      La prolongaci\u00f3n de los precios altos del petr\u00f3leo favorece a los pa\u00edses exportadores netos de energ\u00eda, pero act\u00faa como un impuesto al consumo en las econom\u00edas desarrolladas. El \u00e9xito del escenario de Scotiabank depende de una estabilizaci\u00f3n diplom\u00e1tica en las rutas comerciales clave del Mar Rojo y el Golfo P\u00e9rsico antes del cierre del semestre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Un reciente informe de Scotiabank Global analiza el panorama de las materias primas y su impacto directo en las principales econom\u00edas del mundo. Seg\u00fan la entidad, el mercado energ\u00e9tico seguir\u00e1 operando bajo condiciones de escasez y volatilidad durante la mayor parte de 2026, lo que condicionar\u00e1 el ritmo de recorte de tasas de inter\u00e9s por […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":41019,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[1011,138],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-69033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias-financieras","tag-medio-oriente","tag-petroleo-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPetr\u00f3leo seguir\u00e1 alto hasta el 3T26 seg\u00fan Scotiabank - SAFRAS & Mercado<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Scotiabank proyecta precios de petr\u00f3leo elevados hasta el tercer trimestre de 2026. 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