{"id":68874,"date":"2026-03-16T15:32:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T18:32:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/?p=68874"},"modified":"2026-03-16T15:32:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T18:32:28","slug":"btg-pactual-bonos-cer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/btg-pactual-bonos-cer\/","title":{"rendered":"Bonos CER le ganan la pulseada a la tasa fija – BTG Pactual"},"content":{"rendered":"

El \u00faltimo an\u00e1lisis de BTG Pactual<\/b> destaca una visi\u00f3n constructiva sobre el mercado de capitales argentino<\/a><\/span>, se\u00f1alando que, a pesar de las bajas calificaciones crediticias actuales, los fundamentos macroecon\u00f3micos muestran una solidez creciente que favorece la inversi\u00f3n en t\u00edtulos p\u00fablicos.<\/p>\n

Para los analistas del banco de inversi\u00f3n, el escenario de precios obliga a recalcular estrategias. Con una inflaci\u00f3n proyectada del 26% anual<\/b> \u2014un nivel que supera las expectativas previas del mercado\u2014, los instrumentos que ajustan por el coeficiente CER<\/b> se consolidan como la opci\u00f3n m\u00e1s atractiva para cubrirse de la p\u00e9rdida de poder adquisitivo, superando el atractivo de las tasas fijas.<\/p>\n

Potencial de suba y riesgo pa\u00eds<\/h2>\n

BTG identifica una oportunidad de valor en los t\u00edtulos soberanos en d\u00f3lares (hard dollar) bajo un proceso de convergencia regional:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    El caso del GD35:<\/b> El bono global con vencimiento en 2035 es se\u00f1alado como uno de los activos con mayor potencial de suba si la Argentina logra alinear sus tasas de retorno con las de Ecuador<\/b>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Compresi\u00f3n de spreads:<\/b> Actualmente, el riesgo pa\u00eds argentino cotiza unos 100 puntos b\u00e1sicos<\/b> por encima del ecuatoriano. Los analistas creen que hay margen para que esa brecha se cierre gracias a la solvencia fiscal y la acumulaci\u00f3n de reservas.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Fortalezas frente a choques externos<\/h2>\n

    A pesar de la persistencia del control de capitales (cepo), BTG subraya tres factores que reducen la vulnerabilidad del pa\u00eds:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      Bajo Endeudamiento:<\/b> La deuda neta se ubica en el 36,4% del PBI<\/b>, un nivel considerado manejable y bajo para los est\u00e1ndares de mercados emergentes.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    2. \n

      Capital Pol\u00edtico:<\/b> La aprobaci\u00f3n de reformas legislativas recientes ha fortalecido la gobernabilidad y la percepci\u00f3n de los inversores.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    3. \n

      Reservas del BCRA:<\/b> Los analistas proyectan que el Banco Central podr\u00eda comprar cerca de US$ 10.000 millones<\/b> en reservas durante 2026, asegurando la capacidad de pago del Tesoro para los pr\u00f3ximos compromisos de deuda.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Comparativa Crediticia<\/h2>\n

      Argentina mantiene actualmente calificaciones de CCC+ (S&P)<\/b> y Caa1 (Moody’s)<\/b>. Aunque se encuentra un escal\u00f3n por debajo de pa\u00edses como Nigeria o Ecuador, la consultora destaca que la tendencia macroecon\u00f3mica es positiva<\/b>, lo que podr\u00eda anticipar futuras subas en la calificaci\u00f3n soberana.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      El \u00faltimo an\u00e1lisis de BTG Pactual destaca una visi\u00f3n constructiva sobre el mercado de capitales argentino, se\u00f1alando que, a pesar de las bajas calificaciones crediticias actuales, los fundamentos macroecon\u00f3micos muestran una solidez creciente que favorece la inversi\u00f3n en t\u00edtulos p\u00fablicos. Para los analistas del banco de inversi\u00f3n, el escenario de precios obliga a recalcular estrategias. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":61343,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[334,408,588],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-68874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias-financieras","tag-argentina-es","tag-mercado-es","tag-merval"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBonos CER le ganan la pulseada a la tasa fija - BTG Pactual - SAFRAS & Mercado<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bonos CER son la mejor opci\u00f3n contra la inflaci\u00f3n seg\u00fan BTG Pactual. 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