{"id":68848,"date":"2026-03-13T11:56:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T14:56:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/?p=68848"},"modified":"2026-03-13T11:56:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T14:56:21","slug":"moodys-vaca-muerta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/moodys-vaca-muerta\/","title":{"rendered":"Suba del crudo impulsa a Vaca Muerta pero asfixia al agro – Moody’s"},"content":{"rendered":"

El m\u00e1s reciente informe de la calificadora Moody\u2019s<\/b> advierte sobre el impacto asim\u00e9trico que la crisis en el Estrecho de Ormuz est\u00e1 proyectando sobre la econom\u00eda argentina. Mientras que la energ\u00eda encuentra un viento de cola por los precios internacionales, el sector agropecuario<\/a><\/span> se enfrenta a una \u00abcrisis de costos\u00bb que amenaza la pr\u00f3xima campa\u00f1a de trigo y cebada.<\/p>\n

La escalada b\u00e9lica en Medio Oriente llev\u00f3 al petr\u00f3leo Brent a romper la barrera de los US$ 100<\/b> y al gas natural licuado (GNL) a los US$ 16<\/b>. Esta din\u00e1mica genera un escenario de \u00abganadores y perdedores\u00bb dentro de la estructura productiva nacional, con una disparidad preocupante entre el aumento de los granos y el de los insumos.<\/p>\n

Vaca Muerta: Blindaje de inversiones y caja<\/h2>\n

El salto en los precios internacionales de la energ\u00eda favorece directamente el perfil exportador del pa\u00eds:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    Generaci\u00f3n de caja:<\/b> Los productores de crudo en la cuenca neuquina ven fortalecidos sus flujos de ingresos, asegurando el financiamiento para proyectos de infraestructura exportadora.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    El riesgo del refino:<\/b> En contrapartida, las refinadoras locales enfrentan un escenario complejo. El encarecimiento del crudo presiona sus m\u00e1rgenes, dada la dificultad de trasladar \u00edntegramente estos valores a los surtidores en el mercado interno.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    El agro ante la siembra fina 2026\/27<\/h2>\n

    Para el sector agropecuario, el reporte de Moody’s es una se\u00f1al de alerta. El encarecimiento de la log\u00edstica y los derivados del gas est\u00e1 rompiendo la relaci\u00f3n insumo-producto:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      Explosi\u00f3n de la Urea:<\/b> El fertilizante clave alcanz\u00f3 los US$ 620 por tonelada<\/b>, un incremento del 30% en solo un mes<\/b>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    2. \n

      Descalce de precios:<\/b> Mientras los costos suben un 30%, el trigo solo mejor\u00f3 un 12%<\/b> y la soja un 8%<\/b>. Esta brecha erosiona la rentabilidad proyectada para la campa\u00f1a fina que inicia en mayo.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    3. \n

      Menos tecnolog\u00eda:<\/b> Moody’s prev\u00e9 que los productores con menor liquidez opten por recortar el \u00e1rea de siembra<\/b> o, en su defecto, reducir la fertilizaci\u00f3n, lo que impactar\u00eda en el rinde y la calidad de la cosecha futura.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      El m\u00e1s reciente informe de la calificadora Moody\u2019s advierte sobre el impacto asim\u00e9trico que la crisis en el Estrecho de Ormuz est\u00e1 proyectando sobre la econom\u00eda argentina. Mientras que la energ\u00eda encuentra un viento de cola por los precios internacionales, el sector agropecuario se enfrenta a una \u00abcrisis de costos\u00bb que amenaza la pr\u00f3xima campa\u00f1a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":67558,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[267,444],"tags":[298,334,1011,755,138],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-68848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agronegocio-es","category-noticias-financieras","tag-agro-2","tag-argentina-es","tag-medio-oriente","tag-moodys","tag-petroleo-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSuba del crudo impulsa a Vaca Muerta pero asfixia al agro - Moody's - SAFRAS & Mercado<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Reporte de Moody's: El petr\u00f3leo a US$ 100 impulsa la energ\u00eda argentina, pero el salto del 30% en urea pone en jaque la siembra de trigo.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/moodys-vaca-muerta\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Suba del crudo impulsa a Vaca Muerta pero asfixia al agro - 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