{"id":68479,"date":"2026-02-06T09:51:56","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T12:51:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/?p=68479"},"modified":"2026-02-06T09:52:22","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T12:52:22","slug":"rem-inflacion-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/es\/rem-inflacion-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Analistas del BCRA elevan la proyecci\u00f3n de inflaci\u00f3n anual al 22,4%"},"content":{"rendered":"

El consenso de los analistas consultados por el Banco Central<\/b> ajust\u00f3 sus estimaciones de inflaci\u00f3n<\/a><\/span> para 2026, situ\u00e1ndola en un 22,4%<\/b> (un incremento de 2,3 puntos porcentuales respecto al reporte previo). A pesar de este ajuste, se espera que el \u00edndice de precios contin\u00fae un sendero descendente, perforando el piso del 2% mensual a partir de abril.<\/p>\n

Inflaci\u00f3n Mensual y Tasas<\/h2>\n

El mercado anticipa un primer trimestre con mayor presi\u00f3n estacional, seguido de una estabilizaci\u00f3n:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n

    Enero:<\/b> 2,4% (estimado).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Febrero:<\/b> 2,1%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Abril:<\/b> 1,9% (primera vez debajo del 2% en el a\u00f1o).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Julio:<\/b> 1,5% (proyectado).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Actividad Econ\u00f3mica y Empleo<\/h2>\n

    A pesar del ajuste inflacionario, las proyecciones de crecimiento se mantienen positivas, aunque con leves recortes en la intensidad de la recuperaci\u00f3n:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. \n

      PIB 2026:<\/b> Se estima un crecimiento real del 3,2%<\/b>, una baja de 0,3 p.p. frente al informe anterior.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    2. \n

      Desempleo:<\/b> Se proyecta una tasa del 6,6%<\/b> para el cuarto trimestre de 2026, mostrando una estabilidad estructural en el mercado laboral.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    3. \n

      D\u00f3lar:<\/b> El tipo de cambio nominal se estima en $1.750<\/b> para diciembre, lo que implica una devaluaci\u00f3n anual del 20,9%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Sector Externo y Fiscal<\/h2>\n

      El frente comercial y fiscal sigue siendo el ancla del programa econ\u00f3mico:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        Super\u00e1vit Comercial:<\/b> Proyectado en US$ 11.175 millones<\/b>, impulsado por exportaciones de US$ 91.885 millones.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Resultado Fiscal:<\/b> Se espera un super\u00e1vit primario de $16,0 billones<\/b>, reforzando el compromiso con el equilibrio financiero.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        El consenso de los analistas consultados por el Banco Central ajust\u00f3 sus estimaciones de inflaci\u00f3n para 2026, situ\u00e1ndola en un 22,4% (un incremento de 2,3 puntos porcentuales respecto al reporte previo). A pesar de este ajuste, se espera que el \u00edndice de precios contin\u00fae un sendero descendente, perforando el piso del 2% mensual a partir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":67735,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[334,481,862],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-68479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias-financieras","tag-argentina-es","tag-inflacion","tag-rem"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAnalistas del BCRA elevan la proyecci\u00f3n de inflaci\u00f3n anual al 22,4% - SAFRAS & Mercado<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El REM del BCRA ajust\u00f3 la inflaci\u00f3n de 2026 al 22,4%. 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