Porto Alegre, August 27th 2026 – The latest data for the first half of August show that ethanol stocks in the Center-South continue to increase, but at a pace that needs to be analyzed carefully. Anhydrous ethanol stocks reached 2.44 billion liters, compared with 2.20 billion liters in the same period of the previous crop year, an increase of 10.91%, while hydrous ethanol stocks reached 3.99 billion liters, up 31.21% from last year. Compared with the second half of July, stocks increased by 11.42% for anhydrous ethanol and 12.69% for hydrous ethanol. Therefore, the accumulation process continues precisely during the period when crushing and ethanol production gain greater intensity in the Center-South.<\/p>\n
The first important point is that stock growth cannot be interpreted in isolation as an increase in bearish pressure. Although stored volumes are above those observed last year, both products remain below their five-year averages. Anhydrous ethanol is 9.35% below the historical average for the first half of August, while hydrous ethanol is 3.42% below. This means that the market is rebuilding stocks after beginning the crop year from a much tighter position, rather than necessarily entering a situation of structural oversupply.<\/p>\n
This difference becomes even clearer when looking at the trajectory since April. Anhydrous ethanol stocks increased from 625.5 million liters in the first half of the crop year to 2.44 billion liters in August. Hydrous ethanol, in turn, rose from 992 million liters to 3.99 billion liters. In other words, stocks increased continuously as crushing advanced, but hydrous ethanol showed a much faster pace of rebuilding. This characteristic is beginning to create an important division within the ethanol market: hydrous ethanol currently has greater relative availability, while anhydrous ethanol has more structural demand fundamentals.<\/p>\n
For hydrous ethanol, the figure that draws the most attention is precisely the 31.21% year-on-year increase. This is a significant difference and, at some point, it needs to appear in price formation. The issue is that this has not yet occurred proportionally because the market went through a change in distributor behavior. After operating during much of the beginning of the crop year with a more defensive stance and purchases close to immediate needs, the market began replenishing stocks precisely when immediate availability from mills started to become more selective. The first half of August ended with a strong appreciation in hydrous ethanol and prices approaching the R$ 3.00\/liter range, in a movement associated with stock replenishment and short-term available supply.<\/p>\n
This situation is important because it shows that high inventories do not necessarily mean product is available for sale at any price. There is a difference between physical inventory and commercial availability. Product may be stored but distributed among different agents, committed under contracts, awaiting logistical scheduling, or simply not being offered by mills at the price levels desired by distributors. This difference explains why a market with rising stocks can, at the same time, experience periods of competition for product.<\/p>\n
The behavior of anhydrous ethanol is even more significant. Stocks of 2.44 billion liters are only 10.91% above last year and remain 9.35% below the five-year average. More important than the absolute number is the combination of this inventory level with the new demand structure. With the anhydrous blend in gasoline increasing from 30% to 32%, structural demand for the product rises and reduces the possibility of prolonged surplus formation. The higher blend acts as a new consumption base for anhydrous ethanol, creating demand that does not depend exclusively on the momentary competitiveness of hydrous ethanol versus gasoline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, August 27th 2026 – The latest data for the first half of August show that ethanol stocks in the Center-South continue to increase, but at a pace that needs to be analyzed carefully. Anhydrous ethanol stocks reached 2.44 billion liters, compared with 2.20 billion liters in the same period of the previous crop […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":25564,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[111],"tags":[],"commodity":[34],"class_list":["post-65414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agribusiness-eng","commodity-sugar-and-ethanol"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n