{"id":65304,"date":"2026-04-24T08:02:58","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T11:02:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/eng\/?p=65304"},"modified":"2026-04-24T08:03:28","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T11:03:28","slug":"brazil-physical-coffee-decouples-from-exchange-benchmarks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/safras.com.br\/eng\/brazil-physical-coffee-decouples-from-exchange-benchmarks\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil Physical\u00a0Coffee\u00a0Decouples from Exchange Benchmarks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We have passed mid-April. While exchanges remain agitated and volatile, reflecting the dollar, oil and geopolitical developments such as negotiations involving the U.S. and Iran, in addition to tensions between Israel and Lebanon, the domestic physical\u00a0<span class=\"markq6705gmjo\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\"><span class=\"markurinu4tly\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">coffe<\/span>e<\/span>\u00a0market in Brazil shows a more negative slope in the price curve.<\/p>\n<p>It is clear that the dollar below R$ 5.00 weighs negatively, and everything indicates it should remain weaker at least in the short term, but the main point is the seasonal pressure with the crop arriving in the case of conilon\/robusta and approaching rapidly for arabica. This scenario helps explain the more defensive stance of the buyer, reinforcing expectations of lower prices ahead.<\/p>\n<p>In this partial view of April, the July\/26 position in NY is moving sideways and falling around 1%, while arabica in the domestic market drops nearly 7%. In addition to the arrival of new crop\u00a0<span class=\"markq6705gmjo\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\"><span class=\"markurinu4tly\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">coffe<\/span>e<\/span>, higher carryover stocks, even though concentrated in conilon\/robusta, also pressure prices. In the case of robusta in London, the July\/26 position accumulates gains of nearly 2%. Robusta stocks in London fell to the lowest level in 16 months, totaling 3,788 lots. Meanwhile, Brazilian conilon type 7\/8 in Esp\u00edrito Santo falls more than 9%.<\/p>\n<p>The upward revision of the Brazilian crop this year, combined with higher stocks at the end of the 2025\/26 season, tends to increase available supply from mid-year onward, reinforcing the negative bias in prices. It is worth noting that Brazilian\u00a0<span class=\"markq6705gmjo\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\"><span class=\"markurinu4tly\" data-markjs=\"true\" data-ogac=\"\" data-ogab=\"\" data-ogsc=\"\" data-ogsb=\"\">coffe<\/span>e<\/span>\u00a0exports in the first nine months of the 2025\/26 season are around 21% below the same period of the previous crop, despite the recovery in conilon shipments in March, according to Cecaf\u00e9 data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We have passed mid-April. While exchanges remain agitated and volatile, reflecting the dollar, oil and geopolitical developments such as negotiations involving the U.S. and Iran, in addition to tensions between Israel and Lebanon, the domestic physical\u00a0coffee\u00a0market in Brazil shows a more negative slope in the price curve. It is clear that the dollar below R$ [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":7527,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[104],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-65304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-eng"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Brazil Physical\u00a0Coffee\u00a0Decouples from Exchange Benchmarks - SAFRAS &amp; Market<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil Physical\u00a0Coffee\u00a0Decouples from Exchange Benchmarks - SAFRAS &amp; Market\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We have passed mid-April. While exchanges remain agitated and volatile, reflecting the dollar, oil and geopolitical developments such as negotiations involving the U.S. and Iran, in addition to tensions between Israel and Lebanon, the domestic physical\u00a0coffee\u00a0market in Brazil shows a more negative slope in the price curve. 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