Porto Alegre, April 23th, 2026 – The adjustment between the third and fourth crop surveys occurred due to higher levels of crop management and favorable weather conditions in the region since the previous year; between the third and fourth surveys of the 2025\/26 Center-South crop, volume increased by 8.8 million tons, rising from 607 to 616 million tons.<\/p>\n
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At the end of last week, Conab updated its fourth and final survey for the 2025\/26 crop in Brazil\u2019s Center-South and for Brazil as a whole, promoting a significant increase in the volume of sugarcane to be processed and in ethanol supply, especially corn ethanol. Starting with sugarcane, the highlight is the Center-South, which will have an additional 8.8 million tons (or an increase of 1.46%) in supply between the third and fourth surveys of the 2025\/26 season, rising from 607 to 616 million tons. Even so, Conab\u2019s figures remain above those of SAFRAS & Mercado, which points to 602 million tons for the previous crop, closed in March.<\/p>\n
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Basically, the rainy and favorable weather during the previous off-season, followed by stronger crop management practices and more intense renewal of cane fields, underpins this growth in supply in the last season. However, it is important to highlight that this strong increase only occurs in relation to the immediately previous survey (the third survey). When comparing the current fourth survey of the 2025\/26 season with the fourth survey of the 2024\/25 crop (the prior season), there is actually a slight decline of 610 thousand tons, or a drop of 0.10%. It is important to recall that the earlier crop used for comparison had been impacted by fires and drought conditions at that time.<\/p>\n
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One of the main points drawing attention in Conab\u2019s data is the supply of corn ethanol and sugarcane ethanol. It is important to note that we are still referring to the 2025\/26 crop, which, according to Conab\u2019s fourth survey, should have an anhydrous corn ethanol supply of 3.74 billion liters. This volume represents an increase of nearly 41% compared to the third survey, which indicated 2.82 billion liters\u2014an upward adjustment of 1.15 billion liters. Compared to the 2024\/25 crop, the increase is even more significant, at 55%, with an expansion of 1.42 billion liters over the 2.55 billion liters recorded in the prior season.<\/p>\n
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Regarding hydrated corn ethanol, SAFRAS & Mercado highlights that the supply estimated in Conab\u2019s fourth survey is 6.19 billion liters, representing a decline of 8% (or a reduction of 590 million liters) compared to the 6.78 billion liters estimated in the third survey. Even so, with a clear statistical carryover effect, the comparison with the previous crop shows a 17% increase, with an absolute growth of 920 million liters in hydrated corn ethanol supply.<\/p>\n
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For comparison, the most recent ANP data for April regarding installed production capacity shows that in 2025 there were 23 plants in Brazil producing ethanol from corn, and in 2026 another 7 plants will come into operation, followed by 5 more in 2027 and 2 in 2028, with another 6 plants still pending confirmation of their start date (whether in 2026, 2027, or 2028). Thus, in 2025, the 23 plants already installed had a production capacity of 9.96 billion liters of anhydrous corn ethanol per year. For 2026, the new plants will add 3.23 billion liters of annual capacity; in 2027, an additional 1.60 billion liters will come online.<\/p>\n
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In 2028, an additional 0.33 billion liters of capacity will be added, while plants under update will contribute another 1.20 billion liters. Considering existing capacity in 2025 plus additions from 2026 to 2028 and plants still under development, total annual anhydrous corn ethanol production capacity will reach 16.32 billion liters.<\/p>\n
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Looking at hydrated corn ethanol, production capacity in 2025 stands at 11.46 billion liters per year. For 2026, an additional 3.30 billion liters will be added; for 2027, 1.74 billion liters; and in 2028, 0.62 billion liters. Plants under development are expected to add another 1.42 billion liters annually.<\/p>\n
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Adding 2025 capacity with expansions from 2026 to 2028 and plants under development, total hydrated corn ethanol capacity will reach 18.54 billion liters. Combined with the 16.32 billion liters of anhydrous capacity, total corn ethanol (anhydrous + hydrated) capacity will reach 34.86 billion liters between 2025 and 2028, according to SAFRAS & Mercado calculations.<\/p>\n
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This clearly explains why Conab\u2019s data shows such significant growth in corn ethanol production in the 2025\/26 crop, with increases of nearly 41% in anhydrous ethanol and 17% in hydrated ethanol. Another important point highlighted by SAFRAS & Mercado concerns sugarcane ethanol supply for 2025\/26. According to Conab, sugarcane anhydrous ethanol is expected to decline by 4% (or 460 million liters) between the third and fourth surveys. Compared to the 2024\/25 crop, there will be a drop of 3.17% (or 300 million liters).<\/p>\n
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Volumes of sugarcane anhydrous ethanol fell from 9.56 to 9.11 billion liters between the third and fourth surveys, and from 9.40 to 9.11 billion liters when comparing the fourth survey of the prior crop to the current one. Hydrated sugarcane ethanol, however, follows the opposite trend. Between the third and fourth surveys of 2025\/26, volumes increased from 14.85 to 15.94 billion liters, a rise of 7.38% (or 1.10 billion liters). Compared to 2024\/25, hydrated ethanol fell from 17.70 to 15.94 billion liters, a decline of 9.90%, equivalent to a reduction of 1.75 billion liters.<\/p>\n
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For the new 2026\/27 crop, SAFRAS & Mercado expects total sugarcane crushing volumes of 620 million tons in its second survey conducted at the end of March, representing a 3% increase compared to the 602 million tons processed in the previous 2025\/26 crop (while Conab now estimates 616 million tons in its fourth survey). For sugar production, SAFRAS & Mercado projects 37 million tons in the Center-South, representing a 7.5% decline compared to the 40 million tons produced in 2025\/26. Conab, in its fourth survey, estimated sugar production at 40.78 million tons, a decline of 1.34% compared to its third survey estimate of 41.34 million tons.<\/p>\n
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Safras News<\/p>\n
Copyright – 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, April 23th, 2026 – The adjustment between the third and fourth crop surveys occurred due to higher levels of crop management and favorable weather conditions in the region since the previous year; between the third and fourth surveys of the 2025\/26 Center-South crop, volume increased by 8.8 million tons, rising from 607 to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":52587,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[104],"tags":[277,278,280,165,233,269],"commodity":[34],"class_list":["post-65296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-eng","tag-brazil-2","tag-canesugar-2","tag-sugarcane-2","tag-brazil","tag-cane","tag-canesugar","commodity-sugar-and-ethanol"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n