The April report did not bring major changes to the global soybean supply and demand balance, but it did present some relevant adjustments in the US scenario. US carryover stocks remained practically unchanged; however, there was a downward adjustment in exports, on the order of 950 thousand tons, a movement consistent with the current pace of trade. Weekly sales remain weak, around 5 million tons below the same period last year, while shipments show a lag of approximately 10.9 million tons, highlighting still slow flow through US ports.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, US crushing gained strength in the current season, projected at around 71 million tons, an increase of 1.089 million compared to the previous report. The point that draws the most attention is soybean meal demand, with an estimated increase of approximately 725 to 750 thousand tons. This movement does not find full justification in domestic demand, but contributes to price formation on the Chicago Board of Trade, supporting the meal market in a partially artificial way. It is worth noting that the recent truck drivers strike in Argentina also acted as a supporting factor, driving the strong gains observed in the past week.<\/p>\n
The remaining balances remained practically unchanged, and the market now shifts focus to the most relevant report, the May report, which should bring the first adjustments for the 2026\/27 season. In addition, at the end of May the US planted area report will be released. Expectations remain for firm US demand, both domestically and in exports, with China potentially resuming more consistent purchases. In the Brazilian case, March performance was impacted by the geopolitical context, the war in Iran, and in the cumulative period from January to March, exports show a deficit of around 775 thousand tons compared to the same period in 2025.<\/p>\n
Meal prices are sustaining an atypical scenario for the US crush board, currently around US$ 2.9 per bushel for the May position, while new crop contracts are trading between US$ 2.5 and US$ 2.4 per bushel. These are elevated levels compared to the historical average and are not fully justified from the standpoint of expected crushing. Considering strong soybean oil demand, it is natural that there is greater meal supply, which in turn should be directed to the export market, since domestic feed demand is not growing at the same pace, a movement that, if it occurs, is more likely to materialize in the 2026\/27 season than in the current one. Even so, this increase in demand, even if questionable, helps sustain meal prices on the CBOT.<\/p>\n
Ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels or 9.53 million tons, also unchanged. The market expected carryover of 348 million bushels or 9.47 million tons. The USDA is working with crushing of 2.610 billion bushels and exports of 1.540 billion. In March, the indications were 2.575 billion and 1.575 billion, respectively. The report projected the global soybean crop in 2025\/26 at 427.41 million tons. In March, the forecast was 427.188 million tons. For 2024\/25, the forecast is 428.15 million tons.<\/p>\n
Ending stocks for 2025\/26 are estimated at 124.79 million tons, below the market expectation of 125.5 million tons. In March, the number was 125.31 million. Stocks for the 2024\/25 season are estimated at 124.81 million tons.<\/p>\n
The USDA indicated the Brazilian crop in 2025\/26 at 180 million tons, repeating the previous report. The market expected 179.8 million. For 2024\/25, the estimate was raised from 171.5 million to 172.5 million tons. Argentina production in 2025\/26 is projected at 48 million tons, the same as in March. The market expected 48.1 million tons. For 2024\/25, the figure remained at 51.11 million.<\/p>\n
China imports are estimated at 112 million tons in 2025\/26 and 108 million tons in 2024\/25, repeating the February estimates.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The April report did not bring major changes to the global soybean supply and demand balance, but it did present some relevant adjustments in the US scenario. US carryover stocks remained practically unchanged; however, there was a downward adjustment in exports, on the order of 950 thousand tons, a movement consistent with the current pace […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":48990,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[111,104],"tags":[],"commodity":[47],"class_list":["post-65293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agribusiness-eng","category-highlights-eng","commodity-soyvbean"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n