Porto\nAlegre, December 17, 2020 \u2013 <\/a>The year 2021 promises to be challenging for Brazilian\npig farming due to the cost picture, mainly in the first semester. Corn tends to present\na situation of stress and high prices in the country in the first months of the\nyear with a smaller summer crop and logistics concentrated on soybeans. Another\nimportant variable for the sector next year is the export pace, which will be\ndictated by the pace of purchases from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Brazilian\nexports must show excellent performance, considering the large supply gap\npresent in the Asian country, a consequence of ASF. However, it is worth noting\nthat the cases of ASF have drastically reduced in China, which, together with\nthe high prices of meat and live pigs in its territory, will encourage the\nsearch for the replenishment of herds, thus, the Chinese import curve must start\nto decline from the end of 2021 to 2022. The Chinese government has been\nsetting ambitious goals, besides giving great financial stimuli for the\nexpansion of its production, moving from a colonial approach to a more\norganized and industrial activity, increasing productivity and advancing on the\nissue of biosafety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brazilian farmers\nmust pay attention to this point, not aggressively expanding housing in 2021.\nOther markets around the world cope with matrices at record levels, as is the\ncase in the United States, and must impact prices as soon as China slows down its\npurchases. Brazilian farmers have already increased the herd of matrices this\nyear, even with a severe cost environment, aiming to meet the Chinese demand in\n2021. According to SAFRAS & Mercado, Brazilian pork production must reach\n4.91 million tons, an increase of 2.8% from 4.78 million tons in 2020. It is\nworth mentioning that production costs must impact retention within farms in\nthe first months of the year, and lighter animals end up reducing the volume of\npork available, otherwise the number would be even higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many pieces\nof news related to the Chinese herd are beginning to contaminate the world\nmarket at this time, which may lead to the renegotiation of contracts,\naccording to market rumors, besides reports by Chinese authorities regarding\nthe occurrence of the presence of COVID-19 in lots of meat and packages that are\narriving their territory. The Chinese government recently announced that the\nnumber of matrices reached 38 million head and can be fully restored to pre-ASF\nlevels by the second quarter of 2021. This figure draws great attention,\nconsidering the long production cycle and the presence of ASF in provinces of\nthe country until a few months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The price\nof pigs and pork has indeed shown a sharp downward movement in the Chinese\nmarket recently, but that so happened because the country bought sharp volumes,\nincluding pork and beef, already as a preparation for its main holiday, the Lunar\nNew Year. A counterpoint is the USDA\u2019s figure released in October, which points\nto matrices at 31 million head early next year, volume that respects the activity\ncycle. Anyway, this is a variable that deserves great attention given the great\ncontrast amid information sources and that can bring surprises to markets\naround the world in 2021. All the main world exporters (the United States,\nCanada, European Union, and Brazil) are dependent on Chinese purchases, with\nthe risk of major price depression if purchases are not confirmed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For\nBrazilian pork exports next year, the projection is 1.137 million tons, an\nincrease of 12.6% over the 1.010 million tons of 2020. A limiting factor for\na stronger movement of shipments from Brazil is the number of mills accredited to\nexport to China, which are likely to operate with high capacity in 2021. The\naccreditation of new units would be necessary, hindered by the issue of\nractopamine, used in much of Brazil but not accepted in the Asian country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Exports are\nkey to the balance of the Brazilian market, especially in a scenario of\nexpansion of production, considering that the economic environment will remain\nadverse, affecting demand, despite the expected recovery after COVID-19, with a\nhigh level of unemployment and depressed income of the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ag\u00eancia SAFRAS Latam<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Copyright\n2020 – Grupo CMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, December 17, 2020 \u2013 The year 2021 promises to be challenging for Brazilian pig farming due to the cost picture, mainly in the first semester. Corn tends to present a situation of stress and high prices in the country in the first months of the year with a smaller summer crop and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":22388,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[102],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-22387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agribusiness-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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