Porto\nAlegre, December 7, 2020 – A psychological environment\nin relation to potential purchases by China in the U.S. market has consolidated\na price surge to levels above USD 4.00\/bushel on the CBOT. Crop losses in the\nUnited States and the optimistic projection of exports on 20\/21 by USDA brought\nthis fundamental support to the range of USD 4.00 to 4.30 a bushel. However,\nthese indicators are only in the spreadsheets of analysts, who perform all kinds\nof exercises in a Chinese market that is totally uncertain in statistical terms.\nIt would be completely disastrous for the international corn market to see a\nnormal U.S. crop in 2021, a\nnew production record in China, and Chinese imports reversing their curve even\nif only seasonally in 2021\/22. Today, China is a major statistical uncertainty\nin the global corn market, and depending on the estimate, it can become a major\nsupport point for prices as a total reversal of expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USDA\u2019s reports included\nthe maintenance of a good trend for U.S. domestic demand in the face of\nexpectations of economic recovery for the coming year. They also brought a loss\nof production in relation to the expected super-harvest. Initially, a harvest\nof between 380\/400 million tons was expected and the current numbers yielded to\n364 million. Normal situations within a crop year subject to climatic\nvariations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The fact that began to change\nthe trajectory of the U.S. supply and demand was the Chinese buying movement\nafter the reopening of its market, with the relief of the local pandemic. China\nhas made unprecedented advances in corn imports, given the difficulties in moving\nthe stocks from the northeast of the country to the south and southwest. This\nmovement created the need for consumer hubs in the south and southwest to opt\nfor imports as a short-term supply since domestic logistics could cause a\nrupture in this supply. In this movement, China bought 7.8 million tons, mostly\nfrom the United States and a little bit from Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The import quota set by the\nChinese government is 7 million tons this year. Above this quota, the import\ntax is 65%. As the Chinese market has already reached its import limit and the\ngovernment has not raised the quota for 2020, imports are paralyzed or were\nmuch lower at the end of the year. For those who expected an increasing and\nabsurdly high demand at the end of the year, the flow was well beyond\nexpectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ag\u00eancia\nSAFRAS Latam<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Copyright 2020 – Grupo CMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, December 7, 2020 – A psychological environment in relation to potential purchases by China in the U.S. market has consolidated a price surge to levels above USD 4.00\/bushel on the CBOT. Crop losses in the United States and the optimistic projection of exports on 20\/21 by USDA brought this fundamental support to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":21993,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[102],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-21992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agribusiness-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n