Porto Alegre, November 23, 2020 – Corn\nprices remain firm on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The December contract\nreached its annual high last week, following the surprising and bullish USDA’s\nNovember report. The big point of discussion now is the significant estimate of\nU.S. exports in this business year, which would only be possible through strong\npurchases by China and\/or serious production problems in South America. So, the\nmarket waits for China to resume purchases of U.S. corn so that the USDA’s\nprojections are confirmed. It is not yet possible to say whether the Brazilian\ncrop losses will have any impact on prices on the CBOT, but certainly Brazilian\nimports may be a bullish factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USDA’s November report brought a\nsignificant surprise to the international market, that is, a cut in production\nand consequently in final corn stocks. Stocks dropped 43 million tons and not\nan obvious problem for the local and global supply, but they are their lowest\nlevel since 2013. This fact has generated a potentially bullish environment\nwhere some indicators may stand out from now on, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– Lower stocks impose pressure on the\nplanting of the 2021 crop in the United States;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– Higher soybean prices, at the highest\nlevel of the year, and lower stocks, the lowest since 2016, reflect greater\ncompetition for acreage in the next planting, which requires corn prices to be\nstill high and competitive;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– The climate scenario in South America,\nmainly in Argentina, could put soybean prices at even higher levels and force\ncorn to a price curve above the level of USD 4.30\/bushel on the CBOT. This is\nnot due to corn losses in Argentina but to the need to monitor the price of\nsoybeans to guarantee good planting intentions in the United States in 2021;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– Potential imports from China are the\ndemand indicator for this business year. An international environment was\ncreated suggesting that China would become a big permanent importer of corn\nfrom the United States. This assessment will need to be confirmed in the real\nmarket rather than only with projections. For the time being, there is no major\nnew movement in prices and intention to import from China in the short term;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– Another important point is that Brazil\nalready has strong losses in the summer corn crop and will need to adopt import\nmeasures throughout the first half of 2021. We do not know whether this will be\nenough to cause new highs on the CBOT, but it will undoubtedly be a major new\nbuyer of U.S. corn;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
–\nThe wheat market has been one of the support points of corn on the\ninternational market. Wheat fluctuates around USD 6.00\/bushel but remains close\nto the highs in Europe, awaiting the definition of the Russian crop. The\nvolatility of wheat prices will also drive corn prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ag\u00eancia SAFRAS Latam<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Copyright 2020 –\nGrupo CMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, November 23, 2020 – Corn prices remain firm on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The December contract reached its annual high last week, following the surprising and bullish USDA’s November report. The big point of discussion now is the significant estimate of U.S. exports in this business year, which would only […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":9105,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[102],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-21519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agribusiness-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n