Porto Alegre, October 13, 2020 – The\nreport from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for October was\nexpected to have adjustments to final stocks. Owing to the quarterly stocks\nreport, released on September 30, the downward correction of stocks was\ninevitable. However, the market still expected some downward correction for\nproductivity, due to production adjustments in Iowa and yield confirmations as\nthe crop moves forward. USDA did not bring an additional cut for productivity,\nbut it cut the acreage, which surprised the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The USDA’s October report showed a\ntechnical trend of correction for the final stocks of the 2019\/20 business\nyear, which ended in August. The U.S. business year starts on September 1 and\nends on August 30. The quarterly stocks report, released on September 30,\nreflects the carryover stocks from one business year to another. USDA estimated\nthat these these stocks amounted to 57 mln tons and were corrected to 50.7 mln\ntons due to the quarterly stocks data. This means that the demand of the\nprevious business year was higher than expected by the Department.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Of course, a correction in the stocks of\nthe old crop imposes a correction for the new crop. The stocks for the 2020\/21\nbusiness year was expected to hit 63.4 mln tons last month. USDA has now\nbrought 55.1 mln tons. The cut in stocks was additional since there was a\nreduction in the planted area of ??this crop, from 92 to 91 mln acres. The\nproduction, now estimated at 373.9 mln tons, is slightly lower than the 378 mln\ntons forecast in September. However, it is still a big production and\nsufficient to meet any additional local or international demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite this comfortable position of\nstocks, corn prices on the CBOT have gained momentum with levels near USD\n4.00\/bushel reflecting more the psychological impact of the cut in production\nand stocks than a delicate supply situation. We believe that the market has\nalready priced all the variables in this adjustment in production and stocks,\nand there is little room for more aggressive highs on the CBOT. The point of\nattention is the flow of capital from the financial system to the commodities\nmarkets. Leverage of extraordinary prices without fundamental support can occur\nbecause of the capital movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ag\u00eancia SAFRAS Latam<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Copyright 2020 –\nGrupo CMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, October 13, 2020 – The report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for October was expected to have adjustments to final stocks. Owing to the quarterly stocks report, released on September 30, the downward correction of stocks was inevitable. However, the market still expected some downward correction for productivity, due […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":9100,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[102],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-20073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agribusiness-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n