<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Porto Alegre, August 25, 2020 – Last week the traditional\nPro Farmer\u2019s Crop Tour in the United States brought its assessment to the 2020\nseason. The corn output was indicated slightly below the USDA\u2019s data, by almost\n460 million bushels, in productivity assessment, and already doing a prior\nassessment of losses in Iowa. These losses were caused by the storm, with\nstrong winds, that occurred in a section of Iowa in the second week of August.\nNow, the market awaits the USDA\u2019s report next September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
USDA forecasts the 2020 U.S.\nproduction at 15.278 billion bushels or 388 million tons. A record crop that\nput the stocks projected for 2021 at 70 million tons, a very high level. However,\non the day of the report\u2019s release, August 12, a heavy storm with strong\nwinds hit much of Iowa and Illinois. The largest corn-growing state was\naffected by the storm in almost 40% of its area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From this climatic event, the\nmarket started to project some potential losses. USDA released a pre-assessment\nreport measuring the losses at 150 to 250 million bushels, that is, 8 to 12\nmillion tons, which are significant indeed and bring down the local record crop\nand stocks. The final assessment must only be disclosed in the September report\nor in the future, after growers apply to insurance companies, and more accurate\ndata are disclosed. The consensus is that there are some losses, which will be\ncorrected by USDA in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some satellite-assisted\ncompanies, in turn, estimated that a larger portion of the Iowa crop would have\nbeen affected, which caused some tension in markets. As \u2018affected\u2019 is one thing\nand \u2018lost\u2019 is another, the market expects the USDA\u2019s report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Last week, the traditional Pro\nFarmer\u2019s Crop Tour released its results. For corn, a U.S. crop of 14.82 billion\nbushels or 376 million tons, 12 million tons below the USDA\u2019s forecast. The\nfirst highlight is that this report is historically below the general figures\nfrom USDA because it does not cover all growing areas of the country, but an\nimportant growing area in the Midwest. So, it is normal for the data to be\nlower, but the highlight is that average productivity was 177.5 bushels per\nacre, while USDA projected 181.8 bushels per acre, and all other private sector\ncompanies followed the official figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Without a doubt, the losses in\nIowa affected the overall number of the Crop Tour. USDA does not have to follow\nthe Crop Tour data, but there is a consensus: the losses in Iowa. Losses of 8\/9\nmillion tons in Iowa may be possible for the next report in September, and a\ncut in stocks as well. However, if USDA cuts stocks from 70 to 62 million tons,\nthey will still be large. If the cut is larger, support for prices above USD 3.45\/bushel\non the CBOT may be real after the U.S. harvest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The United States today has\nthe cheapest corn in the international market. FOB prices are between USD\n150\/155 a ton, against USD 165\/168 a ton from Argentina. However, there seems\nto be an international resistance to purchases of U.S. corn, perhaps due to\nquality or some other indicator not yet evaluated. The fact is that this\ninhibits local sales, and CBOT prices are unable to react. Not even heavy\npurchases from China in July and some deals past week helped prices in this\npre-harvest period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Argentina, for example, is\nbreaking export records this year, despite the low prices of U.S. corn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ag\u00eancia\nSAFRAS Latam<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Copyright 2020 – Grupo CMA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Porto Alegre, August 25, 2020 – Last week the traditional Pro Farmer\u2019s Crop Tour in the United States brought its assessment to the 2020 season. The corn output was indicated slightly below the USDA\u2019s data, by almost 460 million bushels, in productivity assessment, and already doing a prior assessment of losses in Iowa. These […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":9095,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-18470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-highlights-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n