The average closing prices of the current driver\ncontract on the ICE Futures US had a month of January marked by significant highs\nin both the annual comparison and in the margin. The market in New York was much more volatile and with significant\ngains due to the combination of the off-season that precedes the 2020\/21 season\nin Brazil\u2019s Center-South with\nthe slow advance of the crush of the new 2019\/20 season in India. The Indian crop, in spite of\nhaving started in October last year on its official calendar, has advanced\nslowly over the last weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even now, four months after the official start of\nthe season in the country, supply volumes produced are 23% lower than in the\nsame moment of the previous season. During November and December this gap was\neven greater, in the range of 38% to 32%. The point is that this occurred in\nthe midst of a longer off-season in Brazil,\nbrought forward by about 40 days due to the rains that hit local cane fields,\nreinforcing the tone of scarcity of supply and rising prices in New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The expectation of SAFRAS & Mercado is for new\nlosses for international futures for the commodity in view of the coming season\nof Brazil\u2019s\nCenter-South. This crop will have a record cane volume of 600 million tons,\nincluding another record of 18 million tons of cane remaining from the previous\nseason that had not been processed or reaped due to the aforementioned rains in\ncane-producing regions since October last year. Therefore, despite strong gains\nat the beginning of the year, the next few months tend to bring important\nnegative correction movements to New\n York prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this context, in January, the average closing\nprice of the March\/20 contract on the New\n York exchange was USD\/cents 14.17. In comparison with\nthe same month of the previous year, there was an increase of 11.67% over the\naverage of USD\/cents 12.69. In the margin, there was an appreciation of 6.23%\nover the average of USD\/cents 13.34\n in December. Expanding the analysis scope, we see that\nthe average price of January this year was 6.42% below the average price for\nthis period of around USD\/cents 15.14 for the last five years. In the previous\nmonth current prices had been 10.09% lower than the average for the last five\nyears for the period, which until then was around USD\/cents 14.83.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As a result, the average price of the last five\nyears between December and January rose by 2.07%, while the March\/20 price level\nended up advancing 6.23% in the margin. Therefore, the reading is that there\nwas a reduction in the distance between the current price level and its\nhistorical average for the period, with the price level of the current driver\ncontract getting closer to the historical average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For January, SAFRAS & Mercado\u2019s expectation was\nfor prices around USD\/cents 13.50, which was 4.71% below the effective average\nprice for the period at USD\/cents 14.17. For February, SAFRAS & Mercado\nexpects prices to be around USD\/cents 14.50, which must account for an annual\nincrease of 12.62%, together with an advance of 2.35% in the margin, and a 2.71%\ndecrease from the average price for the last five years for the same period.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The average closing prices of the current driver contract on the ICE Futures US had a month of January marked by significant highs in both the annual comparison and in the margin. The market in New York was much more volatile and with significant gains due to the combination of the off-season that precedes the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":8930,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[102,267],"tags":[],"commodity":[],"class_list":["post-11909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agribusiness-en","category-market-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n