World coffee production in 2024/25 is revised to 174.9 mln bags
World coffee production in the 2024/25 season (July/June) is estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) at 174.9 mln bags. Despite the negative revision of 0.8% from the June estimate, due to the downward revision in the 2024 Brazilian crop, world production is still expected to grow 4.1% over the previous season, with arabica rising 1.5%. The growth of robusta stands out, which is expected to increase 7.5% compared to last year, driven by the recovery in production in Vietnam and Indonesia. Overall, the USDA’s projected global coffee production will be the largest since the record global crop of 2020/21, the year of the record crop in Brazil. It is important to note that the USDA’s estimates, especially for robusta in Vietnam, are well above the projections that the market had been working with, as some traders are pointing to a robusta crop of 24 to 26 mln bags.
Global stocks should fall to 20.87 mln bags in a 12.4% stock-to-consumption ratio
Global exports have undergone a modest correction, with the increase in shipments from Vietnam partially offsetting the reduction in exports from Brazil. The world is expected to export just under 145 mln bags in the 2024/25 season, up 1% from the previous season. Global consumption is expected to grow by more than 5 mln bags, reaching 168 mln, which corresponds to an increase of 3.1% compared to last year. The recovery of consumption in the European Union and the growth of China’s share stand out.
Production growth is slightly higher than consumption, which justifies the small increase in the global surplus, projected at 6.78 mln bags. However, the flow of exports is also expected to grow, absorbing a significant portion of the surplus and reducing stocks, which are expected to fall to 20.9 mln bags by the end of the season. Thus, the stock-to-consumption ratio is falling to 12.4%, below that registered in the previous season.
