World exports reached 12.12 mln bags in December 2021, according to the ICO. This corresponds to an increase of 8.9% over the same period last year. Even with the improvement in performance at the end of last year, shipments over the first three months of the 21/22 season (Oct/Dec) reached 21.29 mln bags, down 1.7% from the same period in the previous cycle.
World shipments in the last 12 months reached 128.92 mln bags, which corresponds to a 0.4% decline from the same period in the previous cycle. The worst performance is of Brazilian naturals, as expected, due to the shortfall in the 2021 Brazilian crop. It is worth noting that the previous comparison base is the record crop harvested in 2020. Shipments of naturals from Brazil fell 7.3 % in the period, totaling 39.96 mln bags. The best performance came from Central American milds, which totaled 26.82 mln bags, 9.3% higher.
The ICO price differentials against ICE US indicate the strengthening of Colombian milds and Brazilian naturals, but a slight weakening of the export prices of Central American milds. Robusta keeps losing value in comparison with the ICE US, reinforcing the distinct scenarios of arabica and robusta.
Colombian milds find support in low physical availability, while Brazilian coffee gains strength with the advance of the off-season, little physical availability, and retraction of growers. Central American coffee prices have lost ground a little, reflecting the improvement in the price on ICE and greater physical availability of the product. In general, the market remains highly valued. The ICO composite price advances above the level of 200 cents and is indicated at 211 cents in this final third of February.