World coffee consumption is highly concentrated in developed countries, which have a growth dynamic below the world average. Of course, this has an impact on the evolution of coffee consumption. A survey by ICO points to an average growth in the beverage consumption in the period between 1999 and 2020 of 1.9% per year. In Europe, the growth was only 0.3%, and in North America, another traditional region of coffee drinkers, it followed the global average at 1.9% per year. Now, if we look at Asia, the consumption growth rate rises to 4.5%, well above the global average.
In terms of share, Europe accounts for 31% of world consumption, and North America for 18%. The two continents together account for 49% of the total. If we consider the USA, with 16%, and the Eurozone, with 25%, their representativeness together is 41%, which confirms the strong concentration in the region.
The Asian continent, on the other hand, accounts for 24% of global consumption. Japan, a traditional coffee drinker, has consumed around 7 million bags per year for a long time and currently accounts for 4% of the world’s total. Highlight on the region for the growth of China’s participation, which is still good news for the coffee sector. The growth rate in Chinese coffee consumption for the last 5 years has been 12% a year, raising hope that, finally, the Asian giant will gain a greater role in the coffee market, which would logically help to give more accelerated dynamics to the coffee demand. However, this reality is still far away, since even with extremely high growth and China already appearing among the top 7 coffee consumers in the world, the Asian country accounts for less than 3% of world consumption, which has very little impact on the general context.
Among growing countries, Brazil stands out by being individually the second-largest consumer in the world, second only to the USA. The economic crisis here, aggravated by the pandemic, made consumption fall. It found room for a timid recovery, bumping into the decline in the purchasing power of local consumers. Even so, Brazil remains an important market, accounting for 13% of the global total. Another highlight among producers is Indonesia, which currently accounts for 2.8% of the total and already surpasses other important consumers such as the United Kingdom and Russia.
The very slow evolution in consumption contrasts with the advance of world coffee production in the world, driven by a production increase in Brazil and Vietnam and the renewal of the coffee acreage in Colombia. And this discordant behavior generates distortions in the market, in the face of a more accelerated growth mechanism in production than in consumption, which has made the world recurrently produce more coffee than its consumption, generating production surpluses.
The signs for the world economy do not point to an accelerated resumption of activity, which should continue to curb the evolution of consumption and keep buyers on the defensive. And this, associated with the improved supply, due to a larger crop in Brazil, should keep supply comfortable and with pressure on the international coffee price curve.