Porto Alegre, July 30th, 2025 – The CBOT market was bearish last week, weighing the situation of the US crop, which is progressing very well in terms of weather, but with concerns focused on August, as the 90-day truce between the United States and China ends. Therefore, the focus is on external demand. As there has been no prospect of a crop failure in the United States so far, there is no significant pressure either on final stocks at this time. However, this scenario is clearly subject to change.
Of course, the US crop is not yet defined. We know that August is crucial for soybeans, as it marks the pod-filling period—the stage in which the plant determines the number of beans per pod. Therefore, rain remains essential, especially if intense heat occurs, which is common during the summer.
The good news is that weather maps have been favorable so far. There is no prospect of prolonged droughts, and short-term forecasts indicate between 60 and 80 mm of rain over the month in the main producing states. Illinois and Iowa, for example, have good precipitation forecasts, as does Indiana, with high volumes expected. Most importantly, rainfall should be evenly distributed over the weeks, rather than concentrated in a few days, which benefits crop development.
In this scenario, the Corn Belt remains with a positive outlook. There may be some slight adjustment in productivity, which is natural, but there are currently no conditions for a significant soybean crop failure. Corn, consequently, also benefits from this more regular weather pattern.
In the case of the old US crop, exports remain strong. Accumulated net sales already exceed 50 mln tons, above the latest projections. USDA may even be forced to revise the supply and demand forecast for the 2024/2025 crop. Part of this movement may reflect earlier purchases from China, which is positioning itself in the face of uncertainties in August, be it for tariff issues or not.
On the other hand, physical shipments are lagging behind the average. With only seven weeks away from the end of the business year (August 31), approximately 567,000 tons per week would be needed to meet the contracted total. However, the last three weeks have seen modest shipments (around 300,000 tons a week), limiting the actual growth of exports.
If this weak pace persists, the final volume may fall below current projections. In this case, there are two possible outcomes: an increase in carryover stocks (old crop) or a passage of these volumes into the next crop (2024/2025)—which could provide initial momentum for the new season.
In the Brazilian physical market, last week was marked by more restrained trading due to lows in the futures markets. Reported volumes were limited, both at ports and in the domestic market (industries). Although premiums remain firm along the curve, reflecting the strong pace of exports, prices have not actually gained momentum—on the contrary, they even declined in some markets.
The local basis, however, remains strengthened. Producers maintain a firm stance, holding supplies and, in many cases, prioritizing corn sales. In several regions, soybean prices are already above export parity. The industry continues to buy soybeans, but at a measured pace, negotiating with longer terms, as crush margins are under significant pressure. This scenario does not rule out the possibility of an early shutdown of factories, even with the recent relief brought by soyoil prices.
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