Given the outlook for reaching the largest soybean crop in history, estimated at over 153 mln tons, the expectation is that shipments and crushing will also reach superlative numbers. Even so, due to the huge output, ending stocks must have an important recovery compared to 2022.
Brazilian soybean exports must total 93 mln tons in 2023, above the 78.9 mln indicated for 2022. The forecast is part of the January update of the Brazilian supply and demand, released by SAFRAS & Mercado on the 16th, and indicates an increase of 18% between one season and another. In the previous forecast, in November, the number was also 93 mln.
SAFRAS indicates the crush at 52 mln tons in 2023 and 50 mln tons in 2022, with an increase of 4% between one season and another. In November, the estimate was 50 mln tons. SAFRAS indicates imports of 100 thousand tons for 2023, down 76% from 2022.
For the 2023 season, the total soybean supply is expected to increase by 16%, rising to 157.198 mln tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 148.5 mln tons, up 12% from the previous year. So, ending stocks must rise 133%, from 3.72 to 8.698 mln tons.
SAFRAS estimates the soymeal production at 40.05 mln tons in 2023, 4% higher. Exports are forecast to fall 3% to 19.8 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 19 mln, up 6%. Stocks are expected to rise 56% to 3.48 mln tons.
Soyoil production is expected to increase 4% to 10.6 mln tons. Brazil must export 1.8 mln tons, down 31%. Domestic consumption must rise 16% to 8.9 mln tons. The use for biodiesel is expected to increase by 19% to 5 mln tons. The forecast is for stocks to fall 16% to 408 thousand tons.