The November report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released last Wednesday (9), indicated that the US soybean crop is expected to reach 4.346 bln bushels in 2022/23, equivalent to 118, 3 mln tons. While USDA brought the same bias that the market was expecting, the size of the adjustment exceeded expectations. In any case, the new numbers were not considered a big surprise, bringing little impact to Chicago.
Productivity was indicated at 50.2 bushels per acre. In October, the indications were 4.313 bln bushels – 117.4 mln tons – and 49.8 bushels, respectively. The market was betting on 4.324 bln bushels for the crop or 117.7 mln tons.
Ending stocks are projected at 220 mln bushels or 5.98 mln tons, up from 200 mln in the previous report, or 5.44 mln tons. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 215 mln or 5.85 mln tons. USDA indicated the crush at 2.245 bln bushels and exports at 2.045 bln. Last month, the forecast was 2.235 bln and 2.045 bln, respectively.
Regarding the global picture, the report projected the world soybean crop in 2022/23 with 390.53 mln tons. In October, the projection was 390.99 mln tons. Ending stocks are estimated at 102.17 mln tons, against 100.52 mln tons in October. The market was expecting stocks of 100.9 mln tons.
The USDA projects the US production at 118.27 mln tons, against 117.38 mln in October, as already mentioned. The Brazilian crop was indicated at 152 mln, and the Argentine crop at 49.5 mln tons. In October, the numbers were 152 and 51 mln, respectively. China is expected to import 98 mln tons, repeating the previous month’s estimate.