The USDA attaché’s report maintained the area under coffee production in Vietnam at 600 thousand hectares. There is a movement to cut coffee in the Central Highlands region due to the greater diversification of activities and the exchange for more profitable crops, such as durian and passion fruit. But the rise in coffee prices made cultivation interesting again, with the acreage rising again in mountainous provinces such as Lam Dong and Dak Lak. In this sense, no major changes have been observed in the area cultivated with coffee in Vietnam. The rise in prices served to halt the reduction but is not enough to stimulate growth in the cultivated area due to the strong competition with fruit. This should maintain Vietnam’s productive potential.
The rainy season arrived late in 2024, causing Vietnam to experience temperatures well above average. Of course, this affected coffee productivity. There is a clear difference between the results of irrigated and shaded crops, which present better productive conditions, compared to crops without irrigation, which present losses due to strong water stress. Some producers managed to minimize the impact of the dry climate with greater investment in crops, but in general it will be another year of production far below the Vietnamese potential.
In this sense, Vietnam’s total coffee production for the 24/25 season was projected by the USDA attaché at 29 mln bags, with robusta production estimated at 27.85 mln bags and arabica at 1.15 mln bags. These numbers remain practically stable in comparison to the revised 23/24 production, which was 29.10 mln bags (up 6% from the projection at the end of last year). The report also raised the production estimate for 22/23 to 28.3 mln bags, adjusting the number based on Vietnam government production statistics, including 27.30 mln bags of robusta and 1 mln bags of arabica. This increase stems mainly from the higher estimated area.
The upward shift in prices has changed the behavior of producers, who now, instead of completely exchanging coffee for another culture, are adopting intercropping to diversify and boost income. Approximately 30% of the total coffee area in the Highlands region is grown with other cultures. Intercropping coffee with a reasonable density of shade-providing crops such as pepper, avocado, durian and peach can reduce the effects of high temperatures and diseases.
Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 15.94 mln bags in the first half of the 23/24 season, according to Vietnam customs data and released by the USDA attaché. This accounts for a 7% decline from 22/23. Highlight on the decline in volume shipped in Belgium (-40%), USA (-20%), and Germany (-17%). Even with this performance, USDA raised its export forecast for the 23/24 season to 26.85 mln bags, due to strong coffee prices on the international market. Exporters have been experiencing difficulties due to very high local prices and great resistance from sellers. This producer behavior is resulting in more cautious behavior by exporters, who have avoided closing positions with the future crop. In any case, the preliminary projection is that Vietnam will maintain exports at 26.5 mln bags, 24.4 mln of which are green coffee.