USDA points to a global coffee surplus of 7.91 mln bags in 22/23

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Coffee production is expected to grow 4.7% and reach 174.75 mln bags, after the fall in 2021. And this helps to increase the world supply. Consumption also grows, but more modestly, advancing by only 1.8% and reaching 167.04 mln bags. As a result, USDA projects a global surplus of 7.8 mln bags in the 22/23 season. The slower consumption growth is

associated with the scenario of a slowdown in the world economy due to the global monetary tightening and fragilities generated by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Exports, in turn, must have a very modest advance, growing only 0.8% to reach 141.56 mln bags. And they must be led by Brazil and Indonesia, especially.

Within this scenario of greater slack in supply, world stocks must rise 6.3%, totaling 34.70 mln bags at the end of the 22/23 season. The volume stored is concentrated, mainly among importers, with highlight on the European Union (12.37 mln bags), United States (6.54 mln), and Japan (2.20 mln). Among the producing countries, Brazil, with 5.11 mln, and Vietnam, with 3.51 mln bags, gain visibility.

In this composition, the stock-to-use ratio at the end of the 22/23 business season rises to 20.9%. The fact is that even with this improvement, the scenario is still of caution. Therefore, a full crop is needed in Brazil in 2023, aiming to confirm the resumption of stocks and, with that, bring greater tranquility to the future supply.