Porto Alegre, March 17 2021 – The United States Department of Agriculture’s March report, released on the 9th, brought some surprises to the market. Although major adjustments were not expected for the main figures, USDA brought a bias different than that expected by the market. Players expected another cut in the US and world stocks, but USDA did not change the US numbers and increased the global number. Moreover, USDA also raised its estimate for the Brazilian production, something that was not expected either.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must stand at 4.135 billion bushels in 2020/21, equivalent to 112.53 million tons, repeating the previous report.
Final stocks are estimated at 120 million bushels or 3.26 million tons, unchanged. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 117 million or 3.18 million tons.
USDA put the crush at 2.2 billion bushels (59.87 million tons) and exports at 2.25 billion (61.23 million tons), also unchanged.
As for the world scenario, USDA projected the world soybean output in 2020/21 with 361.82 million tons. In February, the number was 361.08 million tons.
Final stocks are estimated at 83.74 million tons. The market was expecting final stocks of 82.7 million tons. In February, the forecast was 83.36 million tons.
USDA projects the US crop with 112.55 million tons, as already mentioned. For Brazil, the production forecast is 134 million tons, against 133 million in February. Argentina must produce 47.5 million tons. The previous forecast was 48 million tons.