The December supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released last Friday (9), was not as expected by the market due to the trend of few changes in the main numbers, but even so it drew the attention of agents in the last session of the week. USDA maintained the numbers of US stocks and the Brazilian and Argentine crops in the 2022/23 season.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must reach 4.346 bln bushels in 2022/23, equivalent to 118.3 mln tons. Yield was indicated at 50.2 bushels per acre, with no changes from the previous report’s projections.
Ending stocks are projected at 220 mln bushels or 5.98 mln tons, also repeating November. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 236 mln or 6.42 mln tons. USDA indicated the crush at 2.245 bln bushels and exports at 2.045 bln, unchanged.
Regarding the global picture, USDA projected the world soybean crop in 2022/23 with 391.17 mln tons. In November, the projection was 390.53 mln tons. Ending stocks are estimated at 102.71 mln tons, against 102.17 mln tons in November. The market expected ending stocks of 102.2 mln tons.
USDA projects the US production with 118.27 mln tons, unchanged, as already mentioned. Brazil must produce 152 mln tons, and Argentina 49.5 mln tons, maintaining the November projections.
China must import 98 mln tons, repeating the previous month’s estimate. Regarding the 2021/22 season, global production is estimated at 355.61 mln tons, with ending stocks of 95.59 mln. The market had projected carryover stocks of 94.7 mln tons.