Porto Alegre, March 15, 2022 – The March report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), released on the 9th, caught the market’s attention last week, although it did not bring surprises. The report brought cuts in the US and world stocks, as well as to the crops in Brazil and Argentina. Although the cuts were already expected, their size was a little different from what the market expected.
USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must reach 4.435 bln bushels in 2021/22, equivalent to 120.7 mln tons. The number is the same as the previous estimate. Yield was maintained at 51.4 bushels per acre.
Ending stocks are projected at 285 mln bushels or 7.76 mln tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 270 mln or 97.35 mln tons. In the previous report, the forecast was 325 mln or 8.85 mln tons.
USDA indicated crush at 2.215 bln bushels (60.28 mln tons) and export at 2.090 bln (56.88 mln tons). In the previous month, the estimates were 2.215 bln (60.28 mln tons) and 2.050 bln (55.79 mln tons) respectively.
Regarding the global picture, the USDA projected the world soybean crop in 2021/22 of 353.8 mln tons, against 363.9 mln in February. Ending stocks are estimated at 89.96 mln tons. The market expected ending stocks of 88.9 mln tons. In February, USDA indicated stocks of 92.83 mln tons.
USDA projects the US crop with 120.71 mln tons, maintaining the previous forecast. For Brazil, the forecast was cut from 134 mln to 127 mln tons. Argentina’s crop is estimated at 43.5 mln tons, a cut of 1.5 mln from the previous report. The market expected the production of 128 mln and 43 mln, respectively. Chinese imports were cut from 97 mln to 94 mln tons.
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