Porto Alegre, April 16th, 2025 – Last week was marked by the recovery of soybean prices in the international market. After successive fluctuations related to the trade war triggered by the United States, the final balance was positive. A consistent buying movement ensured a technical reversal in Chicago, with accumulated gains of nearly 5% until Friday morning, after contracts reached four-month lows.
In Brazil, trading remains extremely heated, with firm prices, even in the face of the recent hike on the CBOT and the appreciation of the dollar. Premiums remain stagnant at high levels, considering the current supply scenario, and port values surpassed BRL 140.00 per bag. According to a survey conducted by Safras & Mercado Consultancy, roughly 50.7% of the crop has already been sold, equivalent to approximately 87.5 mln tons.
US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of trade tariffs — with the exception of those imposed on China — which reduced risk aversion in the markets. The relief in agricultural commodities was reinforced by the withdrawal of trade retaliation by the European Union. However, tariffs on Chinese products were raised to 145%, while Beijing responded by imposing tariffs of 125%, raising fears of a possible switch of Chinese demand to South America in the second half of the year.
The USDA’s April report estimated the US soybean crop in 2024/25 at 118.82 mln tons, with an average yield of 50.7 bushels per acre — figures identical to those released in February. Ending stocks were projected at 10.2 mln tons, slightly below market expectations. USDA also raised its crushing forecast from 2.410 to 2.420 bln bushels, while maintaining exports at 1.825 bln bushels.
Global soybean production in 2024/25 was estimated at 420.58 mln tons, slightly below the previous projection. Global ending stocks were raised to 122.47 mln tons. For the 2023/24 cycle, global production is projected at 396.4 mln tons, with ending stocks at 115.27 mln.
In Brazil, the estimate for the 2023/24 crop rose from 153 to 154.5 mln tons. For 2024/25, the projection remains at 169 mln. In Argentina, production was maintained at 48.21 mln tons for 2023/24 and at 49 mln for 2024/25. Chinese soybean imports were maintained at 112 mln tons for 2023/24 and at 109 mln for 2024/25.
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