Last week, the USDA attaché in Beijing updated estimates for Chinese pig farming. According to the attaché, pork production in China is expected to reach 51 million tons in 2022, an increase of 7.37% over 47.5 million tons registered last year, with large industries reaping the results of investments made in the country, when the country suffered from African swine fever. It is worth noting that the margin of Chinese swine farming was positive in May 2022, which has stimulated the search for piglets and live swine, so much so that prices are on the rise in the country. Since the end of June, the price of live pigs has increased by 26.13% in China, from 18.41 to 23.22 yuan/kg. Chinese authorities recently announced that they will continue to release state reserve stocks to control the situation.
For 2023, USDA estimated the production of 52 million tons, an increase of 1.96%. According to the Department’s report, price increases tend to affect demand and, therefore, the movement will lose strength in the medium term, in line with what the market expects. Live pig futures set in Dalian have firm prices through January, the month before the Lunar New Year, in the range of 22,560/23,290 yuan per ton. Contracts covering March and July 2023 point to prices 13% to 17% lower than spot prices, in the range of 19,135 to 20,050 yuan per ton.
The herd of matrices for the January 1, 2023 position was estimated at 42 million head in China, up 5% from early 2022 when it stood at 40 million head. The total herd is expected to reach 457 million head in early 2023, a number that exceeds the 441.59 million head registered in January 2018, the period before the first cases of African swine fever appeared in the country. In other words, the country will have a large supply next year, which must decrease purchases in the international market.
The USDA attaché estimated domestic consumption in China at 53.73 million tons next year in 2023, up 1.58% from 2022 (52.89 million tons). The pork supply deficit in the Chinese market will continue to shrink. For 2022, USDA estimated imports at 2 million tons and for the next year 1.85 million tons, down 7.5%. It is worth noting that China imported 4.33 million tons in 2021. The scenario of Chinese domestic availability is more comfortable at the moment, with production advancing despite the high cost scenario throughout the year. Greater local supply, stable to lower prices, and the process of devaluation of the yuan suggest tougher negotiations for Brazil in 2023.