The announcement by the United States of the removal of the additional 40% tariffs on Brazilian coffee, after lengthy negotiations between the two countries, brought relief to Brazilian exporters and the US industry. The decision applies to products that entered the country from November 13 onward. Last week, the Trump administration had already eliminated the 10% import tariff applied to approximately 200 food products, including coffee. In the Brazilian case, only the extra 40% tariff remained, which has now also been lifted.
The complete removal of tariffs returns the coffee market to normal, reducing cost pressure on the US industry and restoring the global flow to its usual logic. In the United States, tariffs on the main supplier increased the cost of acquiring raw materials and contributed to high inflation. For Brazilian exporters, the loss of competitiveness in the largest consumer market opened up space for other suppliers, potentially stimulating changes in blends and resulting in a lasting loss of market share. It also required weaker differentials in Brazilian FOB prices to compensate for the loss of market share in the United States with advances in other destinations. The end of the tariffs had an immediate impact on prices at the New York and London terminals, which plummeted on Friday (21). And it should also result in adjustments to the differentials for Brazilian coffee.
Brazil should resume shipments to the United States
Brazilian coffee exports to the United States had been declining, creating room for competitors. Data from Cecafé indicates that shipments to the United States between August and October — the period during which the tariffs were in effect — fell by 51.5%, totaling only 984,000 bags, well below the 2 million recorded in the same period last year. The decline reflects the impact of the 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee, which made the product practically unfeasible in that market.
In the first four months of the 2025/26 business season, shipments from Brazil (green + processed coffee) totaled 13.85 million bags, down 20% from the same period last year. In the case of green coffee, the reduction was 21%, with 13% less arabica and 45% less robusta. Besides the smaller arabica crop this year, the loss of competitiveness in the US market, due to tariffs, justifies this decline.
In the case of conillon/robusta, even with a larger crop, the more cautious stance of sellers and the strong flow of purchases from the domestic industry increased export differentials, compromising competitiveness against Asian origins.
The end of tariffs restores equity to Brazil in relation to its competitors and reduces the risk of prolonged market loss in the United States. The tariffs had been stimulating changes in industry blends, reducing the use of Brazilian coffee in favor of other origins, including robusta. This adjustment could solidify over time, with a loss of Brazilian market share in the long term. With the suspension of tariffs, the expectation is for a resumption of Brazilian arabica coffee shipments to the United States.
In the case of conillon/robusta, the increase in shipments is more linked to the producers’ strategy, which restricts supply and focuses commercial dynamics on domestic supply. The increase in the global supply of robusta, with larger crops in Vietnam and Indonesia, also explains the loss of international market share for Brazilian canephora (conillon + robusta).
