The current stage of coffee crops is graining (bean formation), so regular and abundant rainfall is essential. A more favorable climate scenario at the beginning of this year could help alleviate pessimism surrounding the Brazilian arabica crop. However, below-average rainfall in some regions is once again fueling fears among growers. It is worth remembering that last year’s crop in Brazil was hampered by irregular graining, which resulted in a loss of income and negative adjustments to production projections. For now, it is not yet possible to say whether this will be the scenario for this year, as it has rained.
Another problem that is on the radar is high temperatures, with pockets of excessive heat and rainless periods. The climate outlook is still open, and perceptions about the 2025 crop may change over the next few months. This should keep growers on alert, contributing to a more cautious stance, especially in their commitment to future crop sales.
The forecast indicates rain over coffee-growing areas in northern Paraná, São Paulo, and southern Minas Gerais until the end of the week, but in moderate volumes. There is a chance of heavy rain in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais. Rainfall should also remain frequent in Rondônia. In Espírito Santo, northern Minas Gerais, and Bahia, dry weather is expected to prevail and temperatures are expected to remain high. Moisture is expected to increase in the Southeast region of Brazil over the weekend and early next week, especially in coffee-growing areas of São Paulo and Minas Gerais. In the second half of next week, rainfall is also expected to reach Espírito Santo and Bahia with greater intensity.
